State of Play: How 2022's Closest U.S. House Races are Looking in 2024

270toWin contributor Drew Savicki wrote this article. Contact Drew via email or on X @DrewSav. 

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There were eleven U.S. House races decided by a margin of less than 1% in 2022. This article takes a quick look back at those as well as where things stand for 2024 heading into Election Day.

Colorado District 3: Western Colorado

Controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert nearly lost reelection amid Colorado's blue wave. Thanks to support from Governor Jared Polis' landslide reelection and a well-funded challenger in former Aspen City Councilor Adam Frisch, Boebert only won reelection by about 550 votes. To avoid a repeat, Boebert decided to seek reelection in District 4 - located on the opposite end of the state. Despite having no ties there, she is expected to prevail in the state's most conservative district. 

Republican primary voters in District 3 opted for moderate Republican Jeff Hurd over election denying former State Rep. Ron Hanks. Democrats renominated Frisch. His fundraising continues to be phenomenal, but it's a seriously uphill battle for him without Boebert as a foil. Most outlets rate this race as Leans or Likely Republican and there seems little reason to question those ratings at this point.

It is worth noting that Colorado was a state where Democrats handed over control of post-Census redistricting to an independent commission. The 3rd District was shifted two points more Republican. Had the lines used from 2012-2020 been in place for 2022 as well, Boebert would have lost reelection.

California District 13: Central Valley

As in Colorado, California's redistricting is handled by an independent commission. That created a challenge for Democrats in the Central Valley and Sacramento areas. Rep. Josh Harder's district was largely dismantled and he was placed in a district with fellow Democrat Jerry McNerney. McNerney decided not to run for reelection, thus allowing Harder to shift to the 9th district. The open seat was won by Republican John Duarte.

This year's election is a rematch between Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray. Gray, a former Assemblyman, seems to be in a better position this cycle. A mild red wave washed over California in 2022 and Democrats are usually adversely affected by midterm turnout differentials in the Central Valley. A blue collar predominately Hispanic region, the Central Valley is notorious for its low midterm turnout. Longtime Rep. Jim Costa won reelection by just 9% in his Biden +20 district in 2022 as a result of the region's abysmal turnout.

Michigan District 10: Northern Detroit suburbs and exurbs

As a blue wave washed over Michigan in 2022, the 10th congressional district stood out. Rep. Andy Levin opted to run against fellow Rep. Haley Stevens in the neighboring 11th District and lost handily in the Democratic Primary. Democrats had a recruiting hole in the 10th District that they filled with an underwhelming nominee in former Judge Carl Marlinga. Two-time US Senate nominee John James was the GOP nominee.

James ended up winning very narrowly as Marlinga lacked virtually any substantive financial support from his party. Many Democrats (rightly) pointed their fingers at Andy Levin for not running against James. Given the close outcome, Levin would have been the clear favorite. Unfortunately, the decisions made by candidates are made so far in advance one can't predict the future political environment. At the time Levin challenged Stevens it looked Democrats were going to be swept out in the midterms.

A recent public poll shows James up 47-44% against Marlinga. This race has flown under the radar but could very well end up being quite close again.

New York District 17: Lower Hudson Valley

This is where analyzing the House races gets a bit tricky. For months, New York polling suggested a considerable rightward swing from 2020. More recently, however, a string of House polls by Siena college suggested the red wave was off. A poll by SurveyUSA of NY-19 had Democrat Josh Riley leading freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro by 4%.

Lawler seems like a stronger candidate than the other freshman Republicans from New York. There are a couple of Democratic concerns with this district: one being that it is home to a large and swingy orthodox Jewish population. The Democratic nominee, former Rep. Mondaire Jones has previously represented these communities and his strength with them is what powered him to victory in the 2020 Democratic primary.

Much has changed in the interim, with the Israel/Hamas war splitting the Democratic Party (particularly in New York). Jones attempted to have it both ways on this issue, which is what led to him losing the minor party line belonging to the Working Families Party (WFP). The WFP nominee has been accused of being a Republican plant. Given that Democrats normally win the WFP line in the general election, this could prove decisive in a close race.

What few polls we have of this race show the WFP nominee getting a few percentage points. A recent poll from Emerson College puts Lawler ahead 49-44% with one week to go of the campaign. Both Cook and the Crystal Ball rate this race as Leans R and that certainly seems like it will be the case.

Colorado District 8: Northern Denver suburbs and exurbs

Colorado gained an additional congressional district following the census and the newly established redistricting commission certainly drew one heck of a district. Located north of Denver, this district is theoretically meant to be a Hispanic opportunity seat but in reality its Hispanic CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) is below 40%. The 8th district mixes upscale white voters with Hispanics and white working class voters who predominately work in the state's oil and natural gas industry.

Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo faces a tight race from Republican State Rep. Gabe Evans. Caraveo, a pediatrician before she entered politics, is the first Latina to represent Colorado in Congress. Given that background, it's no surprise that she has heavily emphasized healthcare policy in this race. She has touted her prior work in the Colorado legislature, contrasting that with the difficulties of passing legislation as a Democrat in a Republican-controlled House.

Which way the 8th District has trended depends on which two elections you compare. The district got nearly 7% bluer from 2016-2020 as the state got 8% bluer. That means it narrowly trended right of the state. On the other hand, if you compare 2012 to 2020, Biden did worse than Obama in the district and did eight points better statewide. This is a really interesting district because Harris may very well see some slippage here from Biden given its large working class population.

Caraveo is well-funded and now has an incumbent's advantage. That said, a recent Emerson College poll showed a tight race, with Caravaeo leading 48% to 46%.

Iowa District 3: Des Moines and southwest Iowa

In what most considered to be a surprise, Rep. Cindy Axne declined to run again this cycle, leaving Democrats in a bit of a bind. The party has turned to former USDA official Lanon Baccam as its standard bearer. Both Baccam and freshman Rep. Zach Nunn are very well funded. The outcome may hinge on how strong Donald Trump ends up being at the top of the ticket. While Harris is very likely to lose Iowa, a stronger showing than Biden in 2020 may be enough to propel Baccam to the win.

We may get some clarity later this weekend, when legendary Iowa pollster Ann Selzer releases her final 2024 survey. 

New Mexico District 2: Southern New Mexico

Leveraging their legislative trifecta, New Mexico was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in post-Census redistricting. The 2nd District was transformed from a Trump to Biden district. Gabe Vasquez narrowly defeated Rep. Yvette Herrell. This year brings a rematch between the two.

Herrell has noticeably tried to soften her image this year. There is some concern that Democrats will collapse along the border this year and that could very well impact this race. That said, public polls have shown Vasquez leading. Forecast models also have him favored, with 538's giving him an 82% chance of winning and Split Ticket's giving him a 79% chance as of the publication date of this article.

Connecticut District 5: Western Hartford suburbs

This historically Republican district flipped to the Democrats in the 2006 wave. It has remained there, with only occasional strong Republican challenges. In her bid for a third term in 2022, Rep. Jahana Hayes had a closer-than-expected race. Determined to learn from those challenges, Hayes launched her campaign ads early this cycle. However, overall spending in the 5th District has remained relatively modest compared to other competitive House races.

Hayes, the first Black representative from Connecticut, leans slightly to the left of her constituents. Although she won decisively in 2018 and 2020, a stronger GOP challenge in 2022 caught her off guard, revealing her unpreparedness for a competitive race. While presidential election results may indicate a Democratic advantage here, the district is notably more competitive in down-ballot races. An Emerson College poll released in the closing week of the campaign showed Hayes ahead by 49% to 45%.

Washington District 3: Vancouver, southwestern Washington

This is a true tossup race. Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has deliberately cut a moderate image in her narrowly red leaning district. Unlike in 2022, the GOP establishment is going full steam ahead for Joe Kent. Kent has attempted to moderate his image from 2022 and is betting on Trump winning the district again to pull him over the line. It's a not bad bet but Perez is hoping her strong emphasis on local issues will power her to victory.

Kamala Harris will easily win statewide but is fairly unlikely to win this district. Trump would have won the district under the current lines by 4% in 2020, and a similar outcome seems reasonable. This race comes down to whether or not enough Republican leaning voters are going to come home to their party and support the controversial Kent. There have been some public polls of this race and they've been very close. Perez would ideally like Harris to lose this district by less than Biden's 2020 performance.

Arizona District 1: Scottsdale, northeastern Phoenix

After narrowly winning reelection in 2022, Rep. Dave Schweikert announced his departure from the House Freedom Caucus. This was a tacit admission that his right wing views put him out of step with this rapidly growing upscale district. Schweikert benefitted from ticket splitting in 2022 as all but one statewide Democrat won his district. 

Regardless of whether Harris wins or loses Arizona, it seems likely she'll win this district. The Congressman faces another very tough race this year from Dr. Amish Shah, a former State Representative. He may need ticket splitters to rescue him again in order to keep the seat.

New York District 22: Syracuse area

Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams is among the most vulnerable Republicans this cycle. He was the biggest loser in mid-cycle redistricting, which pushed an already blue-leaning district further to the left. It doesn't help that Williams has been a full-throated Trump supporter.  Democrats nominated a strong candidate in State Senator John Mannion, a moderate Democrat from the area. He defeated Air Force Veteran Sarah Klee Hood in the primary but Dems would have been fine with her as well. In a poor sign for the incumbent, he recently released an internal poll showing the race tied.