27 House Races Rated Toss-up or Favored to Change Parties
By 270toWin Staff
November 5, 2024, 4:05 PM ET
In the final House Consensus Map, over 350 of 435 seats were rated as safe for the incumbent party. The remaining seats will determine which party controls the House in 2025. See the Battle for Control House Map >>.
This article will track results for 27 House races rated toss-up or that are favored to flip to the other party. There are other competitive races. Choose a state from the banner at the top of the page for more results.
Except where specified, the below have a consensus rating of toss-up. They are ordered by poll closing time and then state. Vote counts and race projections provided by Decision Desk HQ.
7:30 PM Eastern
These three North Carolina districts were all significantly changed in midcycle redistricting.
North Carolina 6
Open Seat: Democrat Kathy Manning is retiring; no Democrat is contesting the seat. Safe Republican.
North Carolina 13
Open Seat: Freshman Democrat Wiley Nickel is retiring. Likely Republican.
North Carolina 14
Open Seat: Freshman Democrat Jeff Jackson is the party nominee for Attorney General. Likely Republican.
8:00 PM Eastern
Alabama 2
Open Seat: Republican Barry Moore shifted to District 1 after redistricting made this district less favorable for his reelection prospects. Likely Democrat.
Maine 2
Democrat Jared Golden is seeking a 4th term.
Michigan 7
Open Seat: Democrat Elissa Slotkin is the party nominee for U.S. Senate.
Michigan 8
Open Seat: Democrat Dan Kildee is retiring.
Pennsylvania 10
Republican Scott Perry is seeking a 7th term.
9:00 PM Eastern
Arizona 1
Republican David Schweikert is seeking an 8th term
Arizona 6
Freshman Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection.
Colorado 8
Freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo is running for reelection.
Iowa 1
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking a 3rd term. Leans Democrat.
Iowa 3
Freshman Republican Zach Nunn is seeking a 2nd term.
Louisiana 6
Open Seat: Republican Garret Graves retiring after redistricting. If no candidate gets a majority, there will be a top-two runoff in December. Safe Democrat.
Nebraska 2
Republican Don Bacon is seeking a 5th term. Leans Democrat.
New York 4
Freshman Republican Anthony D'Esposito is seeking reelection. Leans Democrat.
New York 19
Freshman Republican Marc Molinaro is seeking reelection.
New York 22
Freshman Republican Brandon Williams is seeking reelection. Leans Democrat.
11:00 PM Eastern
California 13
Republican John Duarte is seeking a 2nd term. Leans Democrat.
California 22
Republican David Valadao is seeking a 3rd term.
California 27
Republican Mike Garcia is seeking a 4th term.
California 41
Republican Ken Calvert is seeking a 17th term. He is the longest-tenured incumbent involved in a toss-up race.
California 45
Republican Michelle Steel is seeking a 3rd term.
California 47
Open Seat: Democrat Katie Porter ran for U.S. Senate.
Oregon 5
Freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is seeking reelection.
Washington 3
Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is seeking reelection.
12:00 AM Eastern*
*1:00 AM for portions of the Aleutian Islands
Alaska At-Large
Democrat Mary Peltola is seeking a third term. If no candidate gets a majority, the winner will be determined via a ranked choice tabulation later this month.
