Battle for Senate Control to be Decided in these 11 States
By 270toWin Staff
November 5, 2024, 5:10 PM ET
This article highlights those elections expected to decide which party will control the U.S. Senate. Battle for Control Senate Map >>
For more election results, select an office or state from the banner at the top of the page.
Battle for Senate Control
Democrats hold a 51-49 partisan advantage in the U.S. Senate heading into the 2024 elections. The map is doing them no favors; Democrats are defending 23 of 34 seats up this year.
One of those is is in deep red West Virginia. Held by retiring Democrat turned independent Joe Manchin, it is all but certain to flip to the GOP.
That effectively puts the starting point at 50-50. From there, the party with a net gain of one or more will have at least 51 seats, and control of the Senate.
Should the Senate end up at 50-50, majority control would end up with the party winning the presidential election. The vice-president, acting as the president of the Senate, gets to cast tie-breaking votes.
With the other seats not expected to be competitive, Senate control will be determined by the 11 elections on this page. We've divided them into four groups.
All times Eastern (ET). Where states span multiple time zones, no winner will be projected before all polls have closed. Vote counts and race projections provided by Decision Desk HQ.
Democratic Incumbents in Presidential Battlegrounds
Of the seven presidential battlegrounds, all but Georgia and North Carolina have a Senate seat up this year. Democrats are defending all of these.
Arizona
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Democrat | Gallego 49.5%, Lake 44.5% (D + 5%) |
Democrat turned independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is retiring after one term. Democrats have nominated Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03). Republicans selected former news anchor Kari Lake, who lost a bid for governor here in 2022.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
Michigan
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Democrat | Slotkin 48.6%, Rogers 44.5% (D + 4.1%) |
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring after four terms. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (MI-07) is the Democratic nominee. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (MI-08) was nominated by the Republicans.
Polls close at 8:00 PM ET, except 9:00 PM ET for a portion of the Upper Peninsula that observes Central Time.
Nevada
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Democrat | Rosen 48.7%, Brown 44.2%% (D + 4.5%) |
Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term. The GOP nominee is Sam Brown, who previously ran for the state's other U.S. Senate seat in 2022. He lost in the primary to Adam Laxalt.
Polls close at 10:00 PM ET.
Pennsylvania
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Democrat | Casey 48.4%, McCormick 45.9% (D + 2.5%) |
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is seeking a 4th term. His challenger is David McCormick, who lost the GOP nomination to Mehmet Oz in the 2022 election for the state's other U.S. Senate seat.
Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.
Wisconsin
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Democrat | Baldwin 48.9%, Hovde 46.9% (D + 2%) |
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seeking a third term. Her challenger is businessman Eric Hovde.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
Democratic Incumbents in Likely Trump States
Two long-time Democratic Senators in increasingly red states face their toughest reelections to date.
Montana
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Republican | Sheehy 51%, Tester 45% (R + 6%) |
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is seeking a 4th term. He appears to be the incumbent most at risk, trailing in the polls in a state that will likely give Donald Trump a double-digit margin of victory. His opponent is businessman Tim Sheehy (R).
Polls close at 10:00 PM ET.
Ohio
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Toss-up | Brown 47.3%, Moreno 47% (D + 0.3%) |
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a 4th term. Brown faces many of the same headwinds as Tester, although the presidential vote isn't expected to be quite as lopsided. His opponent is businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This race is the only consensus toss-up on the board.
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
Republican Incumbents in Likely Trump States
The map doesn't offer many options for Democrats to gain a seat, meaning a loss of just one of the seven seats in the preceding two groups will likely give Republicans control next year. Outside a special situation in Nebraska (see the next section), only Florida and Texas are on the competitive radar in terms of seats currently held by Republicans.
Florida
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Likely Republican | Scott 49.3%, Mucarsel-Powell 44.5% (R + 4.8%) |
Republican Sen. Rick Scott is seeking a second term. His opponent is former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D, FL-26).
Polls close at 7:00 PM ET, except 8:00 PM ET in Panhandle areas observing Central Time.
Texas
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Leans Republican | Cruz 49%, Allred 45.2% (R + 3.8%) |
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is seeking a third term. His opponent is Rep. Colin Allred (D, TX-32).
Polls close at 8:00 PM ET, except 9:00 PM ET for the portion of West Texas that observes Mountain Time.
Two Special Situations
We normally wouldn't see deep blue Maryland and deep red Nebraska on a list like this, but each election has an unusual twist.
Maryland
| Consensus Ranking | Polling Average |
| Likely Democrat | Alsobrooks 50.8%, Hogan 40% (D + 10.8%) |
Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin is retiring after three terms. He won his last term by 35%. The only reason this race is remotely competitive is that popular former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan is the Republican nominee.
However, with Kamala Harris likely to win by a margin of 25% or more at the top of the ticket, Hogan will need to rely on a level of ticket splitting that is virtually unheard of these days in order to prevail.
Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.
Nebraska
| Consensus Ranking | One Recent Public Poll |
| Leans Republican | Fisher 50%, Osborn 43% (R + 7%) |
Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is seeking a third term. This state is so heavily weighted to the GOP that no Democrat even bothered to run. Stepping into that void, independent Dan Osborn has put together an impressive level of support with his populist message. Public polling has been very limited; both campaigns have released surveys with their candidate out in front.
Osborn has not said which party caucus he would join. Should he win, especially if the Senate is otherwise evenly divided, Osborn would be well-positioned to negotiate an important role for himself.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
