Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14
By 270toWin Staff
November 14, 2024, 11:54 AM ET
Vote counts and race projections on 270toWin are by Decision Desk HQ.
Senate
Republicans reclaimed the majority by flipping the open seat in West Virginia and defeating incumbent Democrats in Montana and Ohio. The party will hold at least 52 seats in January. Full Senate results >
Pennsylvania
UPDATE: Decision Desk now projects that Republican David McCormick has won the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race. Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority when the new Congress is seated in January.
While The Associated Press (AP) has called Pennsylvania for Republican David McCormick, they have not been joined by Decision Desk or most of the major television networks.
The race has gone to a recount, mandated by state law as the candidates are separated by less than 0.5% margin.1 1The trailing candidate can waive the recount, but Casey's campaign did not do so. That process will play out over the next two weeks, with results published on November 27.
The recount itself isn't likely to make much of a difference. The main issue, in terms of calling the race, is that there are approximately 80,000 provisional, mail-in, and absentee ballots that still need to be tabulated. While many of these provisional ballots won't end up being counted, the numbers are sufficient enough that a projection of the race can't yet be made with the necessary statistical certainty.
House of Representatives
Since the last update, three races have been called for the Democrats (CA-09, CA-27, CA-47) and one for Republicans (CA-41). This brings the total to 219 Republicans, 212 Democrats.
Thus far, 14 seats have flipped, with a net change of zero seats. Eight incumbents have been defeated. See the Changing Parties table >
The embedded counter above will change from 219-212 as more races are called, and you will see those winners highlighted in the embedded results below.
Uncalled Races
The four remaining races are held by two Democrats and two Republicans.
In Alaska, there probably won't be a race call until the ranked choice tabulation on November 20. The other three races are in California, which is very slow to count.
Maine District 2
We've had some inquiries about this election, which has been called for Democrat Jared Golden.
A ranked choice tabulation is underway. Once that is complete, the final result will be available via the embed below.
This is an unusual situation since there were only two candidates on the ballot.
However, there were enough ballots with nobody selected as a first choice to push both candidates below 50% when included in the total. Under Maine law, this necessitated the ranked choice tabulation.
In 2018 and 2022 over 90% of blank ballots were just that -- no choices were made at all in the race.
According to our partner Decision Desk, even if 15% of voters made a second choice, Theriault would need to earn 97% of those to catch Golden. The math is nearly impossible. That is why they called the race for Golden.
