Cook Political Report Introduces 2026 Governor Ratings

The Cook Political Report is out with its initial ratings for the 2026 gubernatorial elections. 36 states will hold elections next year. Read the full analysis here ($).

Cook previously released its ratings for this year's governor elections in New Jersey (Leans Democrat) and Virginia (toss-up). Both those incumbents are term-limited.

For 2026, the forecaster sees six highly competitive races. All these are rated toss-up with the exception of Kansas, which starts at Leans Republican.

• Arizona: Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking a second term. Cook says she is the party's most endangered incumbent, as the GOP is expected to nominate a candidate more electable than Kari Lake.
• Georgia: Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is ineligible to seek a third term. Statewide races have been highly competitive in recent years, although the last Democrat elected governor here was Roy Barnes in 1998.
• Kansas: Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited. In 2018, she was elected by defeating a controversial Republican nominee (Kris Kobach) to succeed an unpopular Republican governor (Sam Brownback). Absent fortuitous circumstances like those, this will be a tougher hold for Democrats in a state Donald Trump just won by a 16% margin.
• Michigan: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, with a large field of her fellow Democrats expected to seek the nomination to succeed her. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is bypassing that fight to run as an independent. This may complicate Democratic efforts to retain the seat.
• Nevada: Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking a second term. Cook says he is the party's most endangered incumbent. That said, Trump did flip the state this past November, marking the first GOP win at the presidential level since 2004. In addition, Lombardo defeated incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in 2022. Prior to Sisolak's win in 2018, the state last elected a Democratic governor in 1994.
• Wisconsin: Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is completing his second term. While eligible to run, Evers has not yet divulged his plans.

The map below shows the full set of 2025-26 ratings for all 38 states. Click it for an interactive version to create and share your own forecast.