Iowa

Iowa gained statehood in December 1846. Prior to 1988, the state mostly voted Republican, choosing a candidate from that party all but five times from the Civil War years through 1984. While a battleground every four years, Iowa had sided with the Democrats in six of seven elections from 1992 through 2012. That changed dramatically in 2016, when Donald Trump won the state by over 9%, a 15 point swing from 2012. Trump had his best showing here in 2024, winning by 13% over Kamala Harris.

Iowa has gradually lost electoral clout as the state’s population growth has been slow relative to the rest of the country. With six electoral votes today, the state has fewer than half of the 13 it had from the 1880s through the 1920s. Despite this, the state held outsized relevance in the process due to its caucuses, which traditionally kicked off the nominating process each cycle. This changed in 2024, as Democrats shook up the calendar to emphasize other states where demographics more closely matched the party profile. Those shifts didn't go all that well, so it will be interesting to see what the party does in 2028.