2022 Governor Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of November 7, 2022

A consensus outlook for the 2022 elections for governor based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 gubernatorial forecast.

November 7: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin move from Toss-up to Tilts Republican; Kansas, Oregon Toss-up to Tilts Democratic; South Dakota Likely to Safe Republican.

Current

Current Governors by Party

Interactive Map Contested 2022

2023 Governors by Party

*no 2022 election

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Safe	Likely	Leans	Tilt	Toss-up	*

*Independent (AK, OR)

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Governor Elections


Current	22	28
Consensus Forecast	22	28	0
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

	2022	2023	2024^	2025
	16	2	3	1
	20	1	6	1

^Excludes NH & VT: Next election is 2022 (two-year terms)

2022
2023
2024
2025
Show 2022 Candidates

State	Incumbent	Since	Term
AK	Mike Dunleavy	2018	1st
AK	Les Gara Mike Dunleavy* Charlie Pierce Bill Walker
AZ	Doug Ducey	2015	2nd
AZ	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Katie Hobbs Kari Lake
CT	Ned Lamont	2019	1st
CT	Ned Lamont* Bob Stefanowski
DE	John Carney	2017	2nd
DE	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
FL	Ron DeSantis	2019	1st
FL	Charlie Crist Ron DeSantis*
GA	Brian Kemp	2019	1st
GA	Stacey Abrams Brian Kemp*
IN	Eric Holcomb	2017	2nd
IN	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
KS	Laura Kelly	2019	1st
KS	Laura Kelly* Derek Schmidt
KY	Andy Beshear	2019	1st
KY
LA	John Bel Edwards	2016	2nd
LA	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2023 due to term limits.
MA	Charlie Baker	2015	2nd
MA	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022. Maura Healey Geoff Diehl
MD	Larry Hogan	2015	2nd
MD	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Wes Moore Dan Cox
ME	Janet Mills	2019	1st
ME	Janet Mills* Paul LePage
MI	Gretchen Whitmer	2019	1st
MI	Gretchen Whitmer* Tudor Dixon
MN	Tim Walz	2019	1st
MN	Tim Walz* Scott Jensen
MO	Mike Parson	2018	2nd
MO	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
MS	Tate Reeves	2020	1st
MS
MT	Greg Gianforte	2021	1st
MT
NC	Roy Cooper	2017	2nd
NC	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
ND	Doug Burgum	2016	2nd
ND
NJ	Phil Murphy	2018	2nd
NJ	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits.
NM	Michelle Lujan Grisham	2019	1st
NM	Michelle Lujan Grisham* Mark Ronchetti
NV	Stephen Sisolak	2019	1st
NV	Steve Sisolak* Joe Lombardo
NY	Kathy Hochul	2021	1st
NY	Kathy Hochul* Lee Zeldin
OK	Kevin Stitt	2019	1st
OK	Joy Hofmeister Kevin Stitt*
OR	Kate Brown	2015	2nd
OR	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Tina Kotek Christine Drazan Betsy Johnson
PA	Tom Wolf	2015	2nd
PA	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Josh Shapiro Doug Mastriano
RI	Daniel McKee	2021	1st
RI	Daniel McKee* Ashley Kalus
TX	Greg Abbott	2015	2nd
TX	Beto O'Rourke Greg Abbott*
UT	Spencer Cox	2021	1st
UT
VA	Glenn Youngkin	2022	1st
VA	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits.
WA	Jay Inslee	2013	3rd
WA
WI	Tony Evers	2019	1st
WI	Tony Evers* Tim Michels
WV	Jim Justice	2017	2nd
WV	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL	Kay Ivey	2017	2nd
AL	Yolanda Flowers Kay Ivey*
AR	Asa Hutchinson	2015	2nd
AR	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Chris Jones Sarah Huckabee Sanders
CA	Gavin Newsom	2019	1st
CA	Gavin Newsom* Brian Dahle
CO	Jared Polis	2019	1st
CO	Jared Polis* Heidi Ganahl
HI	David Ige	2014	2nd
HI	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Josh Green Duke Aiona
IA	Kim Reynolds	2017	2nd
IA	Deidre DeJear Kim Reynolds*
ID	Brad Little	2019	1st
ID	Stephen Heidt Brad Little*
IL	J.B. Pritzker	2019	1st
IL	J.B. Pritzker* Darren Bailey
NE	Pete Ricketts	2015	2nd
NE	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits. Carol Blood Jim Pillen
NH	Chris Sununu	2017	3rd
NH	Thomas Sherman Chris Sununu*
OH	Mike DeWine	2019	1st
OH	Nan Whaley Mike DeWine*
SC	Henry McMaster	2017	2nd
SC	Joe Cunningham Henry McMaster*
SD	Kristi Noem	2019	1st
SD	Jamie Smith Kristi Noem*
TN	Bill Lee	2019	1st
TN	Jason Martin Bill Lee*
VT	Phil Scott	2017	3rd
VT	Brenda Siegel Phil Scott*
WY	Mark Gordon	2019	1st
WY	Theresa Livingston Mark Gordon*