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UPCOMING

FiveThirtyEight Governor Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an interactive gubernatorial map derived from the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast.

The Toss-up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 36 governor elections in 2022.

Current

Democrats
Republicans
*
*

*no 2022 election

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up  *

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Governor Elections
Current 22 28
Consensus Forecast 22 28 0
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

2022 2023 2024^ 2025
16 2 3 1
20 1 6 1

^Excludes NH & VT: Next election is 2022 (two-year terms)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Mike Dunleavy
2018 1st
Les Gara
Mike Dunleavy*
Charlie Pierce
Bill Walker
AZ Doug Ducey
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Katie Hobbs
Kari Lake
CT Ned Lamont
2019 1st
Ned Lamont*
Bob Stefanowski
DE John Carney
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
FL Ron DeSantis
2019 1st
Charlie Crist
Ron DeSantis*
GA Brian Kemp
2019 1st
Stacey Abrams
Brian Kemp*
IN Eric Holcomb
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
KS Laura Kelly
2019 1st
Laura Kelly*
Derek Schmidt
KY Andy Beshear
2019 1st
LA John Bel Edwards
2016 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2023 due to term limits.
MA Charlie Baker
2015 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Maura Healey
Geoff Diehl
MD Larry Hogan
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Wes Moore
Dan Cox
ME Janet Mills
2019 1st
Janet Mills*
Paul LePage
MI Gretchen Whitmer
2019 1st
Gretchen Whitmer*
Tudor Dixon
MN Tim Walz
2019 1st
Tim Walz*
Scott Jensen
MO Mike Parson
2018 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
MS Tate Reeves
2020 1st
MT Greg Gianforte
2021 1st
NC Roy Cooper
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
ND Doug Burgum
2016 2nd
NJ Phil Murphy
2018 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits.
NM Michelle Lujan Grisham
2019 1st
Michelle Lujan Grisham*
Mark Ronchetti
NV Stephen Sisolak
2019 1st
Steve Sisolak*
Joe Lombardo
NY Kathy Hochul
2021 1st
Kathy Hochul*
Lee Zeldin
OK Kevin Stitt
2019 1st
Joy Hofmeister
Kevin Stitt*
OR Kate Brown
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Tina Kotek
Christine Drazan
Betsy Johnson
PA Tom Wolf
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Josh Shapiro
Doug Mastriano
RI Daniel McKee
2021 1st
Daniel McKee*
Ashley Kalus
TX Greg Abbott
2015 2nd
Beto O'Rourke
Greg Abbott*
UT Spencer Cox
2021 1st
VA Glenn Youngkin
2022 1st
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits.
WA Jay Inslee
2013 3rd
WI Tony Evers
2019 1st
Tony Evers*
Tim Michels
WV Jim Justice
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL Kay Ivey
2017 2nd
Yolanda Flowers
Kay Ivey*
AR Asa Hutchinson
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Chris Jones
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
CA Gavin Newsom
2019 1st
Gavin Newsom*
Brian Dahle
CO Jared Polis
2019 1st
Jared Polis*
Heidi Ganahl
HI David Ige
2014 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Josh Green
Duke Aiona
IA Kim Reynolds
2017 2nd
Deidre DeJear
Kim Reynolds*
ID Brad Little
2019 1st
Stephen Heidt
Brad Little*
IL J.B. Pritzker
2019 1st
J.B. Pritzker*
Darren Bailey
NE Pete Ricketts
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Carol Blood
Jim Pillen
NH Chris Sununu
2017 3rd
Thomas Sherman
Chris Sununu*
OH Mike DeWine
2019 1st
Nan Whaley
Mike DeWine*
SC Henry McMaster
2017 2nd
Joe Cunningham
Henry McMaster*
SD Kristi Noem
2019 1st
Jamie Smith
Kristi Noem*
TN Bill Lee
2019 1st
Jason Martin
Bill Lee*
VT Phil Scott
2017 3rd
Brenda Siegel
Phil Scott*
WY Mark Gordon
2019 1st
Theresa Livingston
Mark Gordon*