Crystal Ball 2024 Senate Ratings

As of November 4, 2024

The current 2024 Senate ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use them to create and share your own Senate forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

November 4: Ohio Toss-up to Leans Republican; Texas Likely to Leans Republican Read the analysis >

Democrats
48
46 2
52
Republicans
28no 2024 election
14
1
5
4
1
9
no 2024 election38
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
 
VP
S

Map Updated: Nov. 4, 2024 at 22:50 UTC (5:50 PM EST)

- +
Safe Likely Leans Toss-up 3P

Independent ratings for ME, NE, and VT only

Count Independent as
ME
NE
VT

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Senate Elections 2024
Current 51
47 4
0 49
Consensus Forecast 48
46 2
0 51 1
Interactive Map Above 48
46 2
0 52
0

Upcoming Elections

Current 2024 2026^ 2028
47 19 13 15
4 4
49 11 19 19

^ Excludes Nebraska seat with a special election in 2024

The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AZ Kyrsten Sinema
2019 1st
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Ruben Gallego
Kari Lake
FL Rick Scott
2019 1st
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Rick Scott*
MD Ben Cardin
2007 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Angela Alsobrooks
Larry Hogan
MI Debbie Stabenow
2001 4th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Elissa Slotkin
Mike Rogers
MT Jon Tester
2007 3rd
Jon Tester*
Tim Sheehy
NE Deb Fischer
2013 2nd
Deb Fischer*
Dan Osborn
NM Martin Heinrich
2013 2nd
Martin Heinrich*
Nella Domenici
NV Jacky Rosen
2019 1st
Jacky Rosen*
Sam Brown
OH Sherrod Brown
2007 3rd
Sherrod Brown*
Bernie Moreno
PA Bob Casey
2007 3rd
Bob Casey*
David McCormick
TX Ted Cruz
2013 2nd
Colin Allred
Ted Cruz*
WI Tammy Baldwin
2013 2nd
Tammy Baldwin*
Eric Hovde
WV Joe Manchin
2011 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Glenn Elliott
Jim Justice
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
CA Laphonza Butler
2023 1st
Not running for a full term
Adam Schiff
Steve Garvey
CT Chris Murphy
2013 2nd
Chris Murphy*
Matt Corey
DE Tom Carper
2001 4th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Lisa Blunt Rochester
Eric Hansen
HI Mazie Hirono
2013 2nd
Mazie Hirono*
Bob McDermott
IN Mike Braun
2019 1st
Retiring to run for governor
Valerie McCray
Jim Banks
MA Elizabeth Warren
2013 2nd
Elizabeth Warren*
John Deaton
ME Angus King
2013 2nd
David Costello
Demi Kouzounas
Angus King*
MN Amy Klobuchar
2007 3rd
Amy Klobuchar*
Royce White
MO Josh Hawley
2019 1st
Lucas Kunce
Josh Hawley*
MS Roger Wicker
2007 3rd
Ty Pinkins
Roger Wicker*
ND Kevin Cramer
2019 1st
Katrina Christiansen
Kevin Cramer*
NE Pete Ricketts
2023 1st
Preston Love
Pete Ricketts*
NJ George Helmy
2024 1st
Helmy was appointed to replace Bob Menendez, who resigned Aug. 20
Andy Kim
Curtis Bashaw
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
2009 3rd
Kirsten Gillibrand*
Mike Sapraicone
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
2007 3rd
Sheldon Whitehouse*
Patricia Morgan
TN Marsha Blackburn
2019 1st
Gloria Johnson
Marsha Blackburn*
UT Mitt Romney
2019 1st
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Caroline Gleich
John Curtis
VA Tim Kaine
2013 2nd
Tim Kaine*
Hung Cao
VT Bernie Sanders
2007 3rd
Gerald Malloy
Bernie Sanders*
WA Maria Cantwell
2001 4th
Maria Cantwell*
Raul Garcia
WY John Barrasso
2007 3rd
Scott Morrow
John Barrasso*