Princeton Election Consortium

Map Based on Polling

Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. 

You can view the full series of three maps here.

A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases:  Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Current

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2020 election
no 2020 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled

November 16, 2024

The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14

November 14, 2024

Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin

Republicans Retain House Majority

November 11, 2024

The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10

November 10, 2024

One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8

November 8, 2024

Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.