Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Biden Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Biden outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell to Retire at End of Term
Currently second in seniority to Chuck Grassley, the 83 year old Republican will not seek an 8th term
Overview and Live Results: Delaware and Louisiana Legislative Special Elections
Two vacancies in the Senate of each state will be filled Saturday
Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
She becomes the second Democratic Senator to retire this cycle
Cook Political Report Releases Initial 2026 House Ratings
The midterm election is shaping up to be another closely-contested battle for control of the chamber
Overview and Live Results: Florida Special Congressional Primaries
The Republican nominees that emerge will be heavily favored in special elections to be held on April 1
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