Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
Headlines
Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled
The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14
Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin
Republicans Retain House Majority
The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10
One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8
Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.
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