Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Rep. Andy Barr Running to Succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell
Live Results: April 22 Connecticut and Mississippi State House Special Elections
Three vacancies will be filled across these two states
Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens Running for U.S. Senate
She will look to succeed retiring fellow Democratic Sen. Gary Peters
Live Results: April 15 State Legislative and Oakland Mayoral Special Elections
Oakland voter will select a new mayor after the prior one was recalled in November
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
In her announcement video, Reynolds cited a desire to spend more time with her family
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