Election News

California holds its non-partisan primary today. All candidates appear on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, moving on to the general election in November. We discussed some of the implications of that type of ballot in a short primary overview yesterday.

While this type of primary may yield some odd outcomes, such as a major party being shut out of a general election race, it also may prove to be a very good predictor of what to expect in November. Analyzing about 25 years of top-two results, the New York Times finds that "the California primary elections on Tuesday might give us a better idea of whether Democrats are headed for a so-called wave election — or whether their recent slide in the generic ballot and the bump in President Trump’s approval rating mean they should worry."

The data shows that "Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington (which also uses the top-two system) and California has differed from the general election result by an average of just three percentage points."

California's non-partisan election highlights a busy primary Tuesday this week. Also on the calendar, with more traditional primaries, are Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. Nominees will be chosen for five Senate and five gubernatorial races across the eight states. California (and New Mexico) have elections for both.

The video below, from the Los Angeles Times, provides an overview of California's top-two primary system. All candidates appear on a single ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election. The most closely-watched races that might be impacted are three Republican-held congressional districts in Orange County and the state's gubernatorial race. 

The special election deadline has passed in Arizona, at least as it is interpreted by Republicans. Should Sen. John McCain leave office this year, Gov. Doug Ducey will appoint his replacement. That individual will not need to face the voters until the next regular election for the seat, which is in November, 2020.

Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens announced his resignation Tuesday, ending a months-long stalemate following his indictment in February on felony invasion of privacy.  The move comes one day after a judge ordered Greitens' political nonprofit to turn over documents to the Missouri House. That body had begun looking into misconduct as a precursor to possible impeachment.

Greitens resignation will be effective June 1st. The first-term Republican will be replaced by Lt. Gov. Mike Parson, also a member of the GOP. The seat will next be contested in 2020.

Rep. Thomas Garrett of Virginia, reversing an announcement he made last week, said he would not run for a 2nd term in Congress this November. Garrett cited a personal battle with alcoholism in his decision. He had also come under fire in recent days for reports that he and his wife regularly had staff members do personal tasks such as picking up groceries and pet waste.

Garrett's 5th congressional district is the largest, by area, in the state. The primarily rural district includes Charlottesville. Garrett won by 17% in 2016, while Donald Trump was beating Hillary Clinton within the district borders by 11%. Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the race from likely to leans Republican due to the seat becoming open.  Whomever the GOP nominates will face Democratic nominee Leslie Cockburn in the general election. 

Some highlights from Tuesday's primaries. Click the state name for full vote tallies from the New York Times.

The New York Times has pages set up to track the results for today's primaries in Kentucky, Georgia and Arkansas, as well as the runoffs in Texas. Click or tap the state name below.

Kentucky: Polls close at 6:00 PM local time. The state is split between the Eastern and Central time zones, so that will be 7:00 PM Eastern for those in the western part of the state. The Democratic primary in the 6th district is being closely-contested. This is the only congressional district in the state that looks competitive in the fall. Those results should begin coming in around 6:15 PM Eastern.

Georgia:  Polls close at 7:30 Eastern; results should begin to arrive shortly thereafter.  Both parties are choosing nominees for governor. Democrats will choose a woman (Stacey Abrams or Stacey Evans) who will attempt to become the first female governor in the state's history. If Abrams prevails - she has been ahead in the polls - she will attempt to become the first black female governor in U.S. history. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle is likely to garner the most votes. Up against several opponents, the question is whether he can get to the 50% needed to avoid a July 24 top-two runoff.

Tuesday sees voters going to the polls for primaries in Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky. Runoff elections will also be held in Texas, for those races where no candidate reached 50% in the March 6th primary. 

There are no U.S. Senate races in any of the three primary states. Arkansas and Georgia have gubernatorial contests, which are among the 36 such races in 2018. In Arkansas, incumbent governor Asa Hutchinson is expected to move on and seems pretty safe for re-election in November.

In Georgia, incumbent Republican governor Nathan Deal is not on the ballot due to term limits. Although there are frontrunners in both parties, the gubernatorial primary in Georgia looks more interesting both for the personalities on the ballot and because there is some possibility this race could be competitive in November. The Democrats will nominate a woman today, either Stacey Abrams or Stacey Evans. This would make a Democratic victory here in November historic:  No woman has ever been elected governor of Georgia. If Abrams were to prevail today and in the fall, she would become the first female African-American governor in American history.

There were few surprises in Tuesday's primaries in Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho and Oregon. All incumbents running for Congress moved on to the general election, as did the expected opponents for the Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Oregon.

Women running for Congress in Pennsylvania had a big night. The state has the largest all-male congressional delegation in the country. Democratic women won in the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 11th, 14th, and 15th districts, while a Republican woman won in the 5th district. In addition, the female Democratic candidates in the 10th and 12th districts are slightly behind; these races have not yet been called by the Associated Press.

Primaries are being held today in Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho and Oregon. In Pennsylvania, it will be the first time voters will cast ballots in the redrawn congressional districts. All four states have gubernatorial elections this fall; Pennsylvania and Nebraska also have Senate races. Nominees will be chosen today, although none of these six races are seen as highly competitive in November at this point.

Poll Closing Times and Results

Click/tap the state name for results from The New York Times