Election News

270toWin contributor Drew Savicki wrote this article. Contact Drew via email or on X @DrewSav. 

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There were eleven U.S. House races decided by a margin of less than 1% in 2022. This article takes a quick look back at those as well as where things stand for 2024 heading into Election Day.

Do not rely on this information to determine when to vote. Your polling place may have different hours.

Standard Time returns Sunday, November 3 at 2:00 AM local time. 

While there are some local exceptions, the maps on this page largely reflect the latest in-person poll closing times for the November 5, 2024 general election.

The first map converts all times to Eastern Standard Time. This is useful as a chronological guide to when results will start becoming available through the evening. The second map displays closings in local time.

For the first time in about a century, it is legal for U.S. residents to trade election contracts in a regulated prediction market. 

This shift came after a legal battle between Kalshi, a prediction market for event contracts and its regulator, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

On Friday morning, Kalshi launched a market allowing users to predict the winner of next month's presidential election. 

The vice-presidential debate airs Tuesday at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. It is hosted by CBS News, but will also be available on many other networks.

Tuesday also brings us the final legislative special election before the November 5 general election.

Alabama State House District 52

One of four U.S. House vacancies will be filled Wednesday by voters in New Jersey's 10th congressional district. The winner will complete the term of Democrat Donald Payne Jr., who died in April.

As the New Jersey Globe reports, "Democrats nominated LaMonica R. McIver, a two-term Newark city councilwoman, in a special primary election on July 16. She faces Republican Carmen Bucco, a Kenilworth businessman, and two independent candidates, Rayfield Morton and Russell Jenkins."

Payne was reelected in 2022 by a 78% to 20% margin over his Republican challenger in this deep blue Newark-area district. Republicans last won the 10th district in 1946.

The only currently-scheduled presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump takes place Tuesday in Philadelphia. It will be moderated by ABC News and begins at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Coincidentally, the debate begins shortly after voting ends in the final three statewide primaries before the November general election. 

Polls close at 8:00 PM in Delaware and Rhode Island. In New Hampshire, the final polls also close at 8:00 PM. However, many locations close at 7:00 PM. All times are Eastern.

Massachusetts has the primary calendar to itself on Tuesday. Next week, the final primaries before the November 5 general election will take place in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.

Massachusetts Primary

Per the Associated Press, "Democrats have a lock on the Bay State’s congressional delegation, with both U.S. Senate seats and all nine U.S. House seats firmly in their column. They also hold lopsided supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, where all seats are up for election in November."

On this page, we've included the only two contested congressional primaries. Visit All Massachusetts Results if you are looking for primary results for the state legislature.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Oklahoma requires a majority winner in most primary elections. On Tuesday, there will be runoffs in 10 legislative districts where no candidate crossed that threshold in the June 18 primary. They are all for the Republican nomination.

Separately, there is a mayoral election in Tulsa.

Tulsa Mayor

The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Trump general election. 

"538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current edge in polls but uncertainty about how the rest of the election could impact the state of the race. With 75 days to go, we think anything from a clear Trump victory to a clear Harris win is possible (while a close win either way is most likely)."

In the image below, the Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

It's primary Tuesday in Florida, the nation's third most populous state. Voters will also go to the polls in two of the three least-populated states: Alaska and Wyoming. 

Alaska has a unique system where all candidates appear on a single ballot and the top four finishers advance. The general election is then decided by ranked choice voting.

Use the links below for full results. Displayed are the poll closings converted to Eastern Time.