Election News

This Tuesday's elections include mayoral primaries in Cincinnati and Toledo. All voters in Ohio will be able to weigh in on an infrastructure bond amendment. There is also a State House special primary in New Hampshire.

Ohio

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Infrastructure Ballot Measure

Ohio Issue 2 is a proposed amendment to the State Constitution. It would allow the state government to issue up to $2.5 billion in general obligation bonds to assist local governments in paying for public infrastructure projects. No more than $250 million of these bonds can be issued in any one year.

Rep. Robin Kelly (IL-02) announced she is running for U.S. Senate in 2026. Kelly hopes to succeed her fellow Democrat, Sen. Dick Durbin, who is retiring after five terms.

This is the first open Senate race in Illinois since 2010 and the nomination will be fiercely contested. Already announced is Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has the support of Gov. JB Pritzker and the state's other Senator, Tammy Duckworth. It has been widely reported that two of Kelly's House colleagues, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL-08) and Lauren Underwood (IL-14) are also interested in a promotion. 

U.S. House Retirements

Voters in several Texas cities will elect a mayor on Saturday. Across the Sabine River, there will be a special primary for a vacant State House seat in Louisiana.

Texas

Four Texas cities that are among the nation's 100 most populous will elect a mayor on Saturday. Population rankings are based on July 1, 2023 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

These mayoral elections are all officially nonpartisan. However, we include the party affiliation of the incumbent in the city info table.

A majority vote is required to win. Otherwise the top two finishers will advance to a June runoff.  Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.  

The forecast team at Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with their initial governor forecast for the 2025-2026 cycle. New Jersey and Virginia will hold elections this year, with 36 states to follow coinciding with next year's midterm elections.

Incumbent governors and New Jersey and Virginia are termed-out. These open races start at Leans Democratic. In Virginia, this would represent a party flip, but one quite consistent with the state's modern voting history: "Since 1977, Virginia has elected a governor from the non-White House party, with the sole exception coming in 2013." 

The Virginia general election will feature Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-07). There hasn't been any recent polling, but several surveys in the first quarter had Spanberger with a modest lead.

This Tuesday, vacancies will be filled in the Iowa State House and Minnesota State Senate.

Polls in both contests close at 9:00 PM Eastern.

Minnesota State Senate District 6

Rep. Andy Barr (KY-06) announced Tuesday that he is running to succeed long-time Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is retiring at the end of this term.

The winner of next year's GOP primary will be a heavy favorite in November. Barr's entry to the race pits him against former Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Others may enter the still developing campaign.

This Tuesday, we're following three State House special elections. In Mississippi, two vacancies will be filled via runoff, while an open seat is filled in Connecticut.

Polls in all three contests close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Connecticut State House District 113

Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) announced she is running for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026. She looks to succeed fellow Democrat Gary Peters, who is retiring.

Stevens is completing her 4th term in the U.S. House. Michigan's 11th district, covering some of Detroit's more affluent northern suburbs, has trended increasingly Democratic in recent cycles. Stevens was reelected by a 19% margin in 2024.

We're following four special elections Tuesday. Voters in Oakland will elect a new mayor after the prior one was recalled. There are also legislative special contests in Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Mississippi.

Oakland, California Mayor

Oakland is the 45th largest in the United States, with a population of about 436,000. That is for the city itself, not the metropolitan area.

Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds announced Friday that she would not seek a third full term in 2026.