Election News

We'll start by looking ahead a week to April 1, shaping up as one of the more consequential dates on the 2025 calendar. The Wisconsin Supreme Court election is the most expensive ever for that office. It is also the first major statewide race since Donald Trump took office.

There are also special elections for two U.S. House vacancies in Florida's 1st and 6th districts. While these seats are likely to remain in GOP control, the margins and level of turnout will be interesting to monitor, particularly in District 6.

This week, we're following Tuesday's five state legislative special elections. Two each in Mississippi and Pennsylvania and one in South Carolina.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is one of only three states, along with Michigan and Minnesota, where there is split legislative control. In Pennsylvania, Republicans control the Senate, while Democrats hold the House.

One vacancy in each chamber will be filled Tuesday. Poll close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

State Senate District 36

One of the more consequential elections in this off year will take place in Wisconsin. Early voting began yesterday for the April 1 state Supreme Court election. It will continue through March 30.

Incumbent Ann Walsh Bradley is retiring. Bradley is the most senior justice on the Court, having been elected in 1995. The election features two Circuit Court judges: Susan Crawford (Dane County) and Brad Schimel (Waukesha County). The winner will serve a ten-year term.

While the justices - and the election - are nonpartisan, the ideological balance of the court is very much on the ballot. Absent Bradley, who is liberal, the court is split 3-3. A Crawford win would retain the court's liberal lean, while a win by the more conservative Schimel would tip the Court to the right.

Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva (AZ-07) has died. He had been undergoing treatment for cancer, and had previously announced his retirement at the end of the current term.

His death comes a little over a week after that of his fellow Democrat, Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18).

Grijalva represented the 7th congressional district, which includes most of Arizona's border with Mexico. It also encompasses parts of Tucson and Yuma, as well as a small portion of the Phoenix area. 

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced Wednesday that she will not run for reelection in 2026. The New Hampshire Democrat, age 78, is completing her third term in office.

State House vacancies in Iowa and Minnesota will be filled Tuesday. There is also a special State Senate primary in Alabama.

Minnesota State House District 40B

The evenly-divided Minnesota State House has 67 Republicans and 66 Democrats. The District 40B vacancy will be filled Tuesday. Members serve two-year terms; the next regular elections are in 2026.

Located within Ramsey County on the northern side of the Minneapolis - Saint Paul area, District 40B was last represented by Democrat Jamie Becker-Finn. She won the seat by a 68% to 32% margin in 2022.

Becker-Finn retired in 2024. Democrat Curtis Johnson was elected by a similarly wide 65% to 35% margin over Republican Paul Wikstrom. However, Johnson was subsequently ruled ineligible to serve as he did not meet residency requirements.

Inside Elections released its initial House ratings this past Friday. The forecaster sees another closely-contested battle for control on the horizon. 

This article from Roll Call summarizes the projections.

Both parties start with a similar number of Safe seats: 180 for Republicans, 176 for Democrats. Adding in those rated Likely brings the total to 192 to 183 in favor of the GOP.

Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) has died at age 70. Turner was just two months into his first term in Congress. He won the seat long-held by fellow Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee, who died in July, 2024.^{1 1}Turner did not run in the special election held concurrently with the regular November election. That was won by Jackson Lee's daughter, Erica Lee Carter. She served until Turner was seated as part of the new Congress on January 3.Turner previously served two terms as mayor of Houston, winning that office in 2015.

A special election date will be set by Gov. Greg Abbott (R).

The current composition of the U.S. House is now 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats. There are three vacancies. The other two open seats are both in safe GOP districts in Florida. These will be filled via special election on April 1.

The first scheduled election we're following in 2025 is Tuesday's St. Louis mayoral primary. There is also a special primary for a vacant State Senate seat in Oklahoma.

Polls close for both at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

St. Louis Mayor (Primary)

St. Louis is the 76th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 280,000. That is for the city itself, not the metropolitan area. Mayors serve four-year terms.

Democrat Tishaura Jones is seeking a second term in office. She has three challengers in this nonpartisan primary, where the top two finishers will advance to the April 8 general election. 

This primary uses a system called 'approval voting'. Voters can mark their ballot for any candidates of which they approve. That can be as many as all of the candidates on the ballot. The two candidates receiving the most approval votes will advance to the April 8 general election.

Rep. Byron Donalds (FL-19) has entered the 2026 race for governor of Florida. He will look to succeed fellow Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to run due to term limit laws. 

Donalds revealed his plans during an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox Tuesday night.

Three states are holding legislative special elections or primaries Tuesday. Results are ordered by poll closing times.

Connecticut

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern.

State Senate District 21 

Democrats hold 25 of 36 seats in the Connecticut State Senate. There are 10 Republicans, and a vacancy to be filled Tuesday. Members serve two year terms; the next regular elections are in 2026.