Election News

The 2022 House Interactive Map is now available. Use it to create and share your own 2022 election forecast.

The interactive map will be updated as states complete the redistricting process and we are able to upload the new district shapes. In some cases, (e.g., Arkansas and Georgia at the moment), new district shapes may be added before they become law if they are all but certain to be enacted (e.g., just waiting on the governor's signature). 

Current House members are assigned to new districts as appropriate. In some cases, redistricting will force two incumbents seeking reelection into the same district. If they are of the same party (e.g., WV-2), the survivor will be determined in the party primary. Alternately, if there is one representative from each party (e.g., NC-11), and both win their respective primaries, they will meet in the general election.

At 400 members, the New Hampshire House is the largest in the country. There are currently 206 Republicans and 188 Democrats. 6 seats are vacant. Members serve two-year terms; the next scheduled elections are in 2022.

With 10 seats, Rockingham 6 is one of the state's largest multi-member districts. All nine incumbents are Republican. The vacancy in the remaining seat occurred in August when Republican Anne Copp resigned.

Jodi Nelson easily won the Republican primary on October 19, getting 78% of the vote in a three-person field. The Democratic nominee is Mary Eisner, who was unopposed. Eisner previously served one term in the House after being elected in 2018. In 2020, she finished first among 10 Democrats on the ballot, but 11th overall, denying her reelection.

Republican Rep. Devin Nunes announced Monday that he will resign from Congress in the coming weeks. He has been hired as CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, which is preparing to launch a new social media platform called TRUTH Social.

Nunes represents California's 22nd district, situated in the San Joaquin Valley. He did not fare well in the first draft of maps released by California's bipartisan redistricting committee last month. If those boundaries were to hold, CA-22 would shift from a district Trump carried by 5% to one Biden carried by 9%. Overall, the state is losing a congressional district in Census apportionment for the first time ever.

Politico reports that former Sen. David Perdue will enter the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial race, challenging Gov. Brian Kemp for the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump has urged Perdue to get in the race. The former president has repeatedly slammed Kemp for refusing to overturn Joe Biden's Georgia win in the 2020 presidential election. 

At one September rally, Trump even suggested 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams would be better for the state than Kemp. There's a chance that could play out - Abrams entered the race last week and will almost certainly be the party's nominee again next year.

Citing a sour political environment for Democrats, Cook Political on Friday shifted eight gubernatorial races toward the GOP.  A ninth race was rerated in favor of Democrats. After two other changes earlier in the week, the forecaster has now updated its outlook on 11 of the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022.

Jessica Taylor's analysis at Cook Political >> ($)

Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin were moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Of these races, Cook cited Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) as "probably the most endangered".

Democrat Stacey Abrams announced Wednesday that she is running for Georgia governor, setting up a possible rematch with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who narrowly defeated her in 2018. 

I’m running for Governor because opportunity in our state shouldn’t be determined by zip code, background or access to power. #gapol

Be a founding donor to my campaign:https://t.co/gk2lmBINfW pic.twitter.com/z14wUlo8ls

— Stacey Abrams (@staceyabrams) December 1, 2021

Kemp defeated Abrams by 1.4% in 2018. It was the third closest gubernatorial race that year. 

Abrams' entry into the race has long been expected. She should have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination. Kemp, on the other hand, has alienated Donald Trump for refusing to help overturn Joe Biden's victory in Georgia last November. Former Sen. David Perdue is considering a primary challenge that would likely come with an endorsement from the former president.

If Abrams were to win next November, she would become the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history.

Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio has become the 19th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022. Now in his 18th term, DeFazio is the longest-serving House member from Oregon.

With humility and gratitude I am announcing that I will not seek re-election next year. Read my full statement here: https://t.co/r690H0vRgu pic.twitter.com/btuTMrBHvL

— Rep Peter DeFazio (@RepPeterDeFazio) December 1, 2021

DeFazio was reelected by about 5% in 2020. It was the closest race of his entire House career. The only other time he won by less than double digits was when first elected in 1986. That year, he won by 8%.

While the seat is back in play for 2022, the Democrat that attempts to succeed DeFazio will have the benefit of a more favorable district. According to FiveThirtyEight, the partisan lean of the 4th district moved from R+1 to D+9 in the state's recently completed redistricting.

2022 House Retirements

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a popular Republican governor in a deep blue state, said Wednesday that he will not seek a third term in 2022. 

?@MassGovernor? is NOT running for a third term. Here’s the letter to supporters that just went out. #wcvb pic.twitter.com/Qql3yQQ1O4

— Karen Anderson (@karenreports) December 1, 2021

More popular with Democrats and Independents than his own party, Baker was facing a primary challenge from the right by Donald Trump-endorsed former state Rep. Geoff Diehl.

Democrats in the race already include State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz and former State Sen. Ben Downing. Popular Attorney General Martha Healey, a moderate, has considered running. That candidacy may now be more likely given the incumbent's departure.

The race was seen as Likely Republican with Baker running; we expect forecasters to dramatically shift those ratings towards Democrats in the days ahead. Thus far, Cook Political has moved its rating from Safe Republican to Leans Democratic.

Atlanta Mayor

No candidate received a majority of the vote in the November 3 election, necessitating Tuesday's top two runoff. As expected, City Council President Felicia Moore finished first. She received 41% of the votes across the 14-person field. 

In a bit of a surprise, City Councilman Andre Dickens edged out former two-term mayor Kasim Reed by 600 votes to claim the second spot. Dickens received 23% of the overall vote. Dickens has been endorsed by outgoing mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

The runoff looks competitive. There have been two polls, which offset each other. A University of Georgia survey showed Dickens with a six-point lead over Moore, while a SurveyUSA poll found just the opposite. Both polls had a significant number of undecided voters.

Rep. Tom Suozzi (NY-3) has entered the 2022 race for governor of New York. He made his announcement Monday morning.

This will be Suozzi's 2nd run for governor. In 2006, he lost the Democratic Primary to Eliot Spitzer by 82% to 18%.