Election News

Hawaii

The Aloha State has a new congressional map, after the state's Reapportionment Commission approved it on Friday. As expected, the changes made were extremely minor, shifting a few thousand people from District 1 to 2. The new map has been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map. 

14 states, with 146 districts, are still to be drawn. This includes 22 districts in Ohio and Alabama, where previously enacted maps have been thrown out by the courts. Florida (28 districts) and New York (26) are the largest states remaining. As we'll discuss next, New York may have a new map by the end of the week.

Congressional redistricting bills have cleared the Republican-controlled legislature in both South Carolina and Tennessee.  South Carolina governor Henry McMaster (R) has already signed his state's bill into law. Gov. Bill Lee (R) will need to do the same in Tennessee, but there's no reason to think that won't happen. As such, shapes for both states have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map. 

Tennessee

One vacancy in the Connecticut State House will be filled today via special election. In South Carolina, Republicans will choose a nominee for an upcoming State Senate special election.

Connecticut State House District 144

Democrats hold 95 of the 151 seats in the Connecticut State House. There are 53 Republicans and three vacancies. Terms are for two years; the next regular elections are in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

Long-time Tennessee Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper (TN-05) announced Tuesday that he won't seek reelection this year.  In his announcement, Cooper cited congressional redistricting, which cleared the Republican-dominated General Assembly after a state House vote Monday.

In a preliminary injunction issued Monday, Federal judges blocked Alabama's new congressional map from being used. The three-judge panel said that since the state's Black population is 27%, should have two districts — instead of one — "in which Black voters either comprise a voting-age majority or something quite close to it." 

As the New York Times reports, "The case is certain to be appealed and could lead to the U.S. Supreme Court addressing the question of whether lawmakers can draw political maps to achieve a specific racial composition, a practice known as racial gerrymandering. In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that federal courts have no role to play in blocking partisan gerrymanders. However, the court left intact parts of the Voting Rights Act that prohibit racial or ethnic gerrymandering."

The judges moved the candidate qualification deadline from January 28 to February 11 to give the Legislature time to draw a new map.

New shapes for Kentucky and Mississippi have been added to the House Interactive Map.  Kentucky's map was enacted after the legislature overrode Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear's veto.  In Mississippi, the new plan awaits the signature of Gov. Tate Reeves, but there's little reason to think that won't happen.

16 other states, with 157 total districts have yet to complete congressional redistricting. Florida and New York, with 54 combined, make up more than 1/3 of the total.

This includes Ohio, where the State Supreme Court invalidated the plan previously signed into law.

New York State Assembly District 68

Democrats hold 103 of the 150 seats in the New York State Assembly. There are 43 Republicans as well as one member from the Independence Party. There are three vacancies. Terms are for two years; the next regular elections are in November. These will be contested using newly redistricted boundaries that have not yet been finalized.

Vacancies in Districts 60 and 72 will be filled in special elections on February 15. The prior incumbents of these two districts, both Democrats, were elected to the New York City Council in November.

Reps. Jim Langevin (RI-02) and Jerry McNerney (CA-09) each announced Monday that they will not seek reelection. This brings to 28 the number of House Democrats retiring or seeking other office this year. 13 Republicans are also departing.

Langevin, in his 11th term, has represented the 2nd district for his entire House career. He won by a 17% margin in 2020. While redistricting isn't yet complete, a proposed map put forth last week by the Rhode Island Special Commission on Reapportionment would change very little.  

Rep. John Katko announced Friday that he won't seek reelection this year. Katko's 24th district is currently located in the central part of the state, bordered by Lake Ontario to the north. The largest city in the district is Syracuse.

In 2020, Katko won his 4th term by a 10% margin. He ran 19 points ahead of Donald Trump here, as Joe Biden carried the district by 9%.  That differential was the largest across any of the 16 total crossover districts that year. 

Katko is one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former president Donald Trump last January. He becomes the third of that group to retire; all 10 have suffered some political repercussions within the party as a result of their vote. After Katko's announcement, Trump released a statement that read "Great news, another one bites the dust. Katko, from Upstate New York, is gone!"

The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's new congressional map Friday, labeling it a Republican gerrymander in violation of the state constitution. The 4-3 decision returned the process to the state legislature with instructions to draw a new that is "not dictated by partisan considerations."

Republicans currently hold a 12-4 edge in the state's congressional delegation. The new map, with one district lost after the 2020 Census, positioned the party to win as many as 13 of 15 seats this year. The consensus house forecast, as of the time the map was voided, is below.