Election News

Former Sanitation Department Commissioner Kathryn Garcia has taken a small lead in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, a new poll finds. In the PIX11 News/Emerson College poll of 570 likely voters, Garcia received 21% support. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is statistically tied at 20%, with entrepreneur Andrew Yang close behind at 16%.

Garcia's support has grown significantly since she received the endorsement of The New York Times earlier this month. In a May 15 survey released by the same pollster, she placed 4th, with just 8% of the vote. It appears her gains largely came from previously undecided voters. Their ranks fell from 23% to 9%, while Adams and Yang saw very little change in support. 

The poll also simulated Ranked Choice Voting, which will be used for the first time in a NYC mayoral race. Garcia comes out on top there, defeating Adams by 55% to 45% in the 11th round.

In a quiet pre-holiday week, the only race we're following is a Democratic primary in Alabama. Next Tuesday, all eyes will be on the special election in New Mexico's first congressional district.  

Alabama State House District 78 Primary (Democratic)

There are 105 State House districts in Alabama. The chamber is dominated by Republicans, who hold a 76-27 advantage. There are vacancies in Districts 73 and 78. The District 73 general special election will be on July 13.

A new poll for next Tuesday's special election in New Mexico's first congressional district gives Democratic nominee State Rep. Melanie Stansbury a 16-point lead over her Republican opponent, State Sen. Mark Moores. The poll was funded through a crowdsourcing effort led by RRH Elections and Elections Daily; it is the only poll of the race we've seen thus far. 

District 1 is in the central part of the state, including much of the Albuquerque area. The seat has been vacant since March, when former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) was confirmed as Secretary of the Interior. Haaland was reelected 58% to 42% in November, while Joe Biden won the district by 60% to 37% over Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, Democratic primary voters in Philadelphia will select a nominee for District Attorney, while those in Pittsburgh will choose a nominee for mayor. Both winners will be heavy favorites in the November general election. There are also four special elections Tuesday to fill vacancies in the Pennsylvania state legislature. In addition, there is an all-party primary for a vacancy in the California Assembly.

Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00 PM ET, California 11:00 PM ET - follow along below for live results.

Philadelphia District Attorney Primary Election

We don't normally follow elections for district attorney, but this one stands out.  How will voters respond to two opposing visions of the office, especially in the context of the prominence of these issues in the national discussion?

The incumbent, Larry Krasner was elected in 2017 on a progressive platform of criminal justice reform. During his term, he has worked to change both the incarceration rate and the length of supervision (parole and probation).

Krasner is being challenged by Carlos Vega, a long-time homicide prosecutor who was among three dozen fired by Krasner when he took office. Vega would like to return to a more traditional approach to prosecution and working with police, citing a notable uptick in violent crime during Krasner's tenure.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has set July 27 as the date for the special election to fill the vacancy in the state's 6th congressional district. The seat has been open since Republican Rep. Ron Wright died in February. 

This suburban Dallas district was decided by only nine points last November, opening up the possibility that Democrats could contest for the seat. However, two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold.

Democrat Troy Carter was sworn into office Tuesday as the new representative of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district. Carter won a special election to succeed former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) who resigned in January to join the Biden Administration.

The U.S. House now has 219 Democrats, 212 Republicans and four vacancies. However, the number of vacancies will return to five later this week when GOP Rep. Steve Stivers (OH-15) steps down. 

Dates have been scheduled for special elections in four of these seats. Although the candidates aren't yet known in all cases, all of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

On Tuesday, voters in Omaha and Anchorage will elect mayors. Both elections are officially nonpartisan, shown as NPA in the results.

Mayoral Elections

City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

Omaha, Nebraska

Omaha is the 40th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 480,000. The current mayor is Republican Jean Stothert. She is seeking a 3rd four-year term. In 2017, Stothert was reelected with about 53% of the vote. 

The New York Times Editorial Board has endorsed Kathryn Garcia for NYC mayor. Garcia is the former Commissioner of the Department of Sanitation, serving from 2014 to 2020. While the general election isn't until November, the party primaries are upcoming on June 22. In this deep blue city, winning the Democratic primary is the largest hurdle to being elected.

In its endorsement, the Times says that "All of the candidates in the June 22 Democratic primary are concerned with the welfare of their city and have thoughtful ideas about how to better it. It is Kathryn Garcia who best understands how to get New York back on its feet and has the temperament and the experience to do so. Ms. Garcia has our endorsement in perhaps the most consequential mayoral contest in a generation." It goes on to say that "she has a zeal for making government work better."

Cincinnati is the 64th largest city in the United States,^{1 1}City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of about 300,000.  Tuesday's all-party mayoral primary will select the two candidates that will meet in the November 2 general election. 

The current mayor is Democrat John Cranley, who is completing his second four year term. He is unable to run due to term limits. There are six candidates on the ballot. While officially nonpartisan (NPA label on the results below), five of the candidates are Democrats; Herman Najoli is an independent. 

There's little clarity on which two candidates will advance to the general election. The top tier candidates are Aftab Pureval, Cecil Thomas and David Mann, with Gavi Begtrup also in the running. Pureval, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts, has raised the most money. Herman Najoli has raised little and did not participate in an online debate last month.

Rep. Charlie Crist (FL-13) announced his entry into Florida's 2022 election for governor. The first notable Democrat in the field, he is hoping to take on GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and return to the job he once held.

I'm running for governor to build a Florida for All - to stop division and hate, bring our state together, and finally open up opportunities for every Floridian. pic.twitter.com/l1OksxMP1y

— Charlie Crist (@CharlieCrist) May 4, 2021

Crist was a Republican when elected governor in 2006, succeeding Jeb Bush who could not run due to term limits. He chose not to stand for reelection in 2010 and instead mounted a campaign for Senate. Trailing Marco Rubio for the nomination, Crist opted to run as an independent, finishing second to Rubio in the general election.

Crist joined the Democratic party in 2012. He was the party's nominee for governor in 2014, losing narrowly to incumbent Republican Rick Scott. In 2016, he successfully ran in Florida's 13th congressional district, and has been reelected twice. 

The Democratic field is expected to get more high profile entrants in the weeks ahead. Fellow Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried have both expressed interest in the race.