Election News

A few weeks back, we did a preliminary calculation of the 2020 electoral map if all states allocated electoral votes like Maine and Nebraska.  Those two states award two electoral votes to the popular vote winner and one each to the popular vote winner in each congressional district.  In 2020, this created a split in both those states: Trump won Nebraska while Biden won District 2; the opposite happened in Maine. 

Most states don't report presidential results by congressional district so it falls on a third party to map precinct/county reporting to districts. DailyKos does excellent work in this area; we've largely relied on their data for the map below.  There are still 5 states where the information isn't complete, including New York and Pennsylvania. However, this article on crossover districts by J. Miles Coleman at Sabato's Crystal Ball fills in those blanks for us. This updated map should be final (or very close).

Applying the congressional district method nationwide, Joe Biden still wins but by a narrower 277-261 result. While the approach might seem like a fairer one at first glance, it fails that test in the real world where many districts are heavily gerrymandered.  Politics would have to come out of the redistricting process to make this a viable alternative to winner-take-all. That's not going to happen.

Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with its initial ratings for the 34 seats to be contested in the 2022 midterm Senate elections. Republicans will be defending 20 seats, Democrats 14. However, the number of competitive seats is small and roughly split between the two parties. This means another closely-contested battle for control is on the horizon.

Read the Crystal Ball article >>

A map of the ratings is below. Click or tap for an interactive version you can use to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman said Monday that he will not seek a third term in 2022. Portman joins fellow Republicans Richard Burr (NC) and Pat Toomey (PA) in announcing their retirement this cycle.

We've updated the 'first look' 2022 Senate map to move Ohio from likely to leans Republican to reflect the lack of an incumbent. Ohio is one of only six states that has a split Senate delegation. Democrat Sherrod Brown is next on the ballot in 2024.  

The 'same since' series of electoral maps lets you see how far back in time each state has voted for a single party in presidential elections. We've updated for the 2020 election where Arizona and Georgia ended a Republican streak dating back to the 1990s.

The timeline goes from 1964 through the 2016 election. 1964 was the first year Washington, D.C. voted in a presidential election. It voted Democratic that year and every election since. The final map, for 2016, shows states that have voted the same in the most recent two elections. It reflects the five states + NE-2 that Joe Biden flipped to win the 2020 presidential election.   

The image links to the 2016 map; you can view the full timeline here.

Punchbowl News reports in its Tuesday morning newsletter that "Democrats Alex Padilla (Calif.), Jon Ossoff (Ga.) and Raphael Warnock (Ga.) will be sworn in as new senators on Wednesday afternoon, according to a Senate source. This will come shortly after Biden and Kamala Harris take their own oaths of office. As VP, Harris is expected to swear in the majority making trio."

For those not familiar, Punchbowl News is a new political news start-up founded by three veterans of Politico. We're finding their free morning edition an invaluable start to the day. You can sign up here.

Kamala Harris resigned from the Senate effective at noon EST Monday. The move comes two days before her inauguration as vice president.  In that role, Harris will become president of the Senate.  This is a largely ceremonial role, but one that it includes the ability to cast tiebreaking votes.  That will take on added importance this year given the chamber's upcoming 50-50 split.   

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has appointed Secretary of State Alex Padilla to serve the final two years of Harris's term. Until he is sworn in the Senate will have 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). The Harris seat and one in Georgia formerly held by Republican David Perdue are vacant. Perdue's term ended January 3; he lost a runoff to Democrat Jon Ossoff on January 5. Georgia's other Senate seat will be changing hands as Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler in a special election runoff. 

Last week, Wisconsin state Rep. Gary Tauchen (R) introduced a bill to change how the state allocates its electoral votes.  If enacted, the state would move from the winner-take-all allocation currently used in 48 states to that of Maine and Nebraska. Those two states use the congressional district method, awarding two electoral votes to the popular vote winner of the state and one to the popular vote winner in each congressional district.  U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R, MI-02) has suggested his state do the same. 

At nearly the same time, Nebraska state Sen. Julie Slama sponsored a bill to switch that state back to winner-take-all. (Slama is a Republican, although the single body Nebraska legislature is officially nonpartisan.)

These proposals seem to pop up after each election. While often couched as fairer, the proposals are almost always partisan in nature, meant to benefit the electoral college fortunes of the party that introduces the bill.  That is the case in all the above.  The 31 electoral votes associated with the above 3 states went 27-4 for Joe Biden in 2020. If the proposed approaches had been in place, Donald Trump would have received 19 of them to 12 for Biden.

Georgia voters will decide the outcome of their two U.S. Senate seats in runoff elections Tuesday. Their choices will also determine which party controls the Senate in the new Congress. The runoffs were necessitated when no candidate in either race received 50% of the vote in the elections on November 3, as required by Georgia law.

Polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Live results will appear below.

Regular Election: Perdue (R) vs. Ossoff (D)

The 117th congress convened Sunday, January 3.

The 2022 Senate Interactive Map is live. 34 Class 3 seats will be contested in this next cycle.  20 of those are held by Republicans, 13 by Democrats. The Georgia special election runoff on January 5 - Loeffler (R) vs. Warnock (D) - will determine which party will be defending the last seat.  This special election is to complete the final two years of Johnny Isakson's term. Isakson resigned for health reasons at the end of 2019.

The new Senate will be seated January 3 and will initially be comprised of 51 Republicans and 48 Democrats. The Georgia seat currently held by David Perdue (R) - on its regular election cycle - will be vacant pending a separate January 5 runoff. Perdue is being challenged by Democrat Jon Ossoff.  

If Republicans win either of these runoffs, they will retain control of the Senate.