Election News

We've added an interactive map for the FiveThirtyEight House forecast to our website, incorporating it into the Consensus House Forecast as well. As of this writing, their model gives Democrats a 96% probability of retaining control of the House.  The party currently holds 233 seats,^{1 1}This includes the vacancy in GA-5, previously held by the late John Lewis. giving it a cushion of 15 over the 218 needed.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated its 2020 election outlook, making changes to its Electoral College forecast, as well as in races for Senate, House and Governor. 

October 8 update and analysis

Maps of the current Crystal Ball projections follow. (These images will automatically update for any subsequent ratings changes). Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.

On Wednesday, The Cook Political Report moved the South Carolina Senate election from Leans Republican to Toss-up.  The race has shifted dramatically in the past five months: as recently as early May, the race was seen by Cook and most analysts as safe for incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Read the Cook analysis from Jessica Taylor

Graham is being challenged by Jaime Harrison, former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party. Harrison has outraised Graham, enabling him to get his message out. As Cook notes: "Harrison first went up on TV back in April with positive bio spots, and hasn’t gone dark since. That allowed Harrison to set the tenor of the race. And since then, he’s had a series of ads that are very clearly aimed at who they hope will be Graham’s Achilles Heel — white women. In several spots, middle age or senior women talk about how they were once longtime Graham voters but now see that he’s changed on health care and how Harrsion's "values" now more closely reflect their values. Harrison has made this race about character and in other Democratic ads they turn the tables and paint Graham as part of the "swamp," and that seems to be working."

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Politico reports that GOP Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania will not seek a third term in 2022. Toomey first won election to the Senate in 2010, narrowly defeating Democrat Joe Sestak.

That 2010 election was notable: the prior year, long-time incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party; he was defeated by Sestak in the primary. 

Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated its election outlook, making 18 total ratings changes to its Electoral College and congressional forecasts.  

October 1 update and analysis

Maps of the current Crystal Ball projections follow. (These images will automatically update for any subsequent ratings changes). Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.

Our consensus electoral map combines nine different forecasts to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. It is a mixture of full-time analysts (e.g., Cook Political), statistical models (e.g., FiveThirtyEight), prediction markets (e.g., PredictIt) and media analysis (e.g., CNN).

Each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up) has a point value.^{1 1}A ten-point scale is used. Positive and negative values are used to offset disagreements across forecasters about who is ahead. Toss-ups receive a score of zero. We add up the points for each state and divide the total by nine to get the average.

Original Consensus Map

Voters in Georgia's 5th congressional district go to the polls Tuesday to choose a replacement for the late Rep. John Lewis. The civil rights icon died in July at 80; he was in his 17th term.

• This is a special election for the remainder of Lewis's term.
• If none of the seven candidates gets a majority of the vote, there will be a top-two runoff on December 1 
• One of the seven, Barrington Martin opposed Lewis in the state's June primary, receiving 12% of the vote
• After Lewis died, the Georgia Democratic Party chose State Sen. Nikema Williams as a replacement for the November election
• Neither Williams nor GOP nominee Angela Stanton-King is running in the special election
• Therefore, whoever wins the special election will only hold the seat until the end of the year

Results will appear here after the polls close at 7:00 PM ET.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.