On Friday, Inside Elections made eight changes to its 2020 Senate ratings. All moved in the direction of Democrats challenging GOP incumbents seeking reelection.
Alaska and South Carolina move from Safe to Likely Republican
Georgia (special) and Texas move from Likely to Leans Republican
July is a quiet month on the election calendar. Tuesday brings us the Delaware and New Jersey presidential primaries, rescheduled from April 28. There are also congressional primaries in New Jersey.
Looking ahead, Louisiana and Puerto Rico1 1Democrats only have scheduled presidential primaries this weekend. That wraps up the presidential primary calendar, except for Connecticut (August 11).
Next Tuesday, July 14, there are congressional primaries in Maine and primary runoff elections in Alabama and Texas.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states can require Electoral College members to cast their vote for the candidate to whom they were pledged to support. The decision was unanimous.
Recent court decisions, in cases arising out of the 2016 presidential election, had come to opposite conclusions about this issue. That year, Donald Trump won states (and a district in Maine) worth 306 electoral votes; Hillary Clinton won states with 232 electoral votes. When the actual vote of Electors took place on December 19, ten electors attempted to cast votes for others. Two of the Clinton electors (one each in Colorado and Minnesota) were replaced, a third (in Maine) ultimately changed their vote to Clinton.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
In a major upset, five-term incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton was defeated by restaurateur Lauren Boebert in the GOP primary for Colorado's 3rd congressional district.
Boebert will meet Democrat Diane Bush in November. Bush was the party's nominee in 2018, losing to Tipton by about 8%. While Boebert will start the race as the favorite in this GOP-leaning district on the state's Western Slope, her positions may create an opening for Democrats. Sabato's Crystal Ball changed its rating of the race from Likely to Leans Republican after Boebert became the nominee.
Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah hold downballot primaries Tuesday. There are a handful of interesting races including the GOP gubernatorial primary in Utah and the Democratic Senate primary in Colorado. For the House, we'll be watching the Republican primaries in OK-4 and UT-4.
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
| 8:00 PM | Oklahoma |
| 9:00 PM | Colorado |
| 10:00 PM | Utah |
All three states on the calendar Tuesday held their presidential primaries in March. The table below shows last week's available delegates (274 from New York + 54 from Kentucky) as many of those have not yet been allocated as ballots continue to be counted. Total delegates are displayed as well.
Joe Biden long ago became the presumptive nominee. However, once he reaches 2,375 delegates, he will have a majority of the projected 4,749 total Democratic delegate votes. By crossing this threshold, all delegates (pledged and super/automatic) will be able to participate in the roll call that nominates the former vice president.
Updating an earlier story, Amy McGrath has won Kentucky's Democratic primary.
Tuesday should bring a resolution to the highly competitive Democratic primary for Senate in Kentucky. Results from the state's two largest counties, Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington) will be released, along with any remaining absentee ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 23 (primary day) and received no later than June 27 to be counted. Complete election results are expected shortly after 6:00 PM ET.
Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot, had long been the frontrunner in this race. However, Charles Booker, a state representative made a late run, staking out more progressive policy positions. The debate over racial injustice has also shaken up this primary: Breonna Taylor was killed by police in Louisville earlier this year. Booker, 35, is the youngest black lawmaker in the Kentucky House.
The pandemic caused the primary to be rescheduled from May 19, and turned it into a largely mail-in contest. While the delay helped Booker in that his campaign only caught fire in the closing weeks, the mail-in component likely helped McGrath as many cast their ballots earlier in the process.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Rep. Eliot Engel has lost his primary to progressive political newcomer Jamaal Bowman. As of about 1:30 PM Wednesday afternoon, Bowman held a 62% to 35% advantage over the 16-term incumbent.
Our election results partner, Decision Desk HQ, noted that Bowman took an unexpectedly large lead in the early and Election Day voting and is ahead in the portion of both counties (Bronx and Westchester) that make up the district. While absentee ballots remain to be counted, the margin Engel would need is such that the call for Bowman can be made.
