Election News

The road to an uncontested Democratic nomination requires a candidate to earn 1,990 pledged delegates¹ and begins in Iowa on February 3. To that end, the first version of our 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator is now available.  It is based on available statewide polling.  An interactive version, where you can create your own forecast, will be available in the near future.

As we launch, the display shows all candidates projected to earn delegates based on polling, as well as anyone with a national polling average higher than that of the lowest delegate-qualifying candidate.  As of now, five candidates would earn delegates based on polling: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  Also displayed are Bloomberg and Yang, who have a higher national polling average than Klobuchar.

GOP Rep. George Holding of North Carolina has announced he will not seek a 5th term in 2020.

JUST IN: George Holding (R-NC) announces he's leaving Congress after redrawn map leaves him with a heavily Democratic district. pic.twitter.com/yX3tfxK1Sg

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) December 6, 2019

Holding is the first casualty of North Carolina's new court-approved 2020 congressional map. From the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman: "Talk about a 'total makeover:' under the new map, the 2nd CD sheds Republican outer suburbs and picks up all of the city of Raleigh, converting it from a district President Trump carried by 12 points to one Hillary Clinton carried by a massive 24 points - and rendering it unwinnable for any Republican."

Here is a comparison of the old and new maps, from Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Six-term Republican Rep. Tom Graves of Georgia will retire at the end of this term, he announced Thursday. Graves first won election to congress in a 2010 special election in the state's 9th district. In 2012, he ran in the new 14th district, established in redistricting after the state gained a congressional seat from the 2010 Census.  

The 14th district is in the northwest corner of Georgia, and is one of the most heavily Republican in the country. Donald Trump won here by 53 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016, the president's 10th largest margin of victory by congressional district that year.  The district is therefore expected to stay in GOP hands.

Democratic Rep. Denny Heck of Washington announced he will not seek a 5th term in 2020. He serves on the House Intelligence Committee, which most recently conducted a high-profile impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The findings were sent on to the the House Judiciary Committee, which began formal hearings Wednesday morning.

Today, I announce my retirement from a career in public service that began over forty years ago. I wrote a brief note of thanks, explanation and remembrance. I hope you’ll take a minute to read it. https://t.co/85W8cRooKE

— Denny Heck (@RepDennyHeck) December 4, 2019

Heck is the only person to have ever represented Washington's 10th district, created after the 2010 Census gave the state an additional representative in Congress. The district sits in western Washington, encompassing the capital, Olympia and the southern portion of the Seattle Metropolitan Area.

Heck won his 4th term in 2018 by about 23 points, while Hillary Clinton won the district by about 11.5% over Donald Trump in 2016. Democrats are likely to hold the district in 2020 despite the loss of incumbency.

California Sen. Kamala Harris ended her bid for the presidency Tuesday, telling supporters that the campaign "simply doesn't have the financial resources we need to continue."  After a breakout performance in the first Democratic debate, her polling numbers had been moving in the wrong direction. There has also been turmoil in the campaign organization. A top aide recently resigned, saying she had never seen an organization "treat its staff so poorly."

To my supporters, it is with deep regret—but also with deep gratitude—that I am suspending my campaign today.

But I want to be clear with you: I will keep fighting every day for what this campaign has been about. Justice for the People. All the people.https://t.co/92Hk7DHHbR

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) December 3, 2019

Harris' recent national polling average was 3.8%, a sharp drop from the mid-teens support she was receiving in July after the first debate. This placed her fifth in the field, in a group with businessman Andrew Yang and former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, who just joined the race last month.  Her polling was also in the 3-4% range in the four early states, limiting her opportunity for an early breakthrough* in those critical contests. 

Despite those troubles, she was one of just seven qualifiers thus far for the final Democratic debate of the year. That debate is December 19th in Los Angeles. The six others include Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer and Elizabeth Warren. It is possible that Tulsi Gabbard and/or Andrew Yang may still make the stage; they have until December 12 to qualify.

_{*Contrast this, for example, to Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is fourth nationally at 11%, but is leading the field with 22% in Iowa.}  

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

West Virginia

West Virginia’s Political U-Turn

West Virginia has undergone an astounding political reversal in the last two decades. The state began reliably voting Democratic in 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt picked it up as a part of his New Deal Coalition. Between 1932 and 2000, the state only voted Republican in the landslide elections of 1956, 1972, and 1984. George W. Bush’s victory in West Virginia in 2000 marked a turning point for the state. In each election since 2000, the Republican nominee has expanded on his predecessor’s margin of victory. This progression culminated in 2016 with Donald Trump’s 68% to 26% blowout over Hillary Clinton.

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said Monday that he is ending his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Bullock made the announcement on Facebook, linking to a longer statement on Medium. He said that "it has become clear that in this moment, I won’t be able to break through to the top tier of this still-crowded field of candidates."

Bullock is in his 2nd term as governor of Montana, a deep red state that voted for Donald Trump by a 58-33 margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. It has voted only twice for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1950. Bullock frequently used the talking point that he was the only Democrat in the field that won a Trump state. However, it wasn't enough to help him break out in this historically large field.  His national polling average was well under 1% at the time of withdrawal.

Former Rep. Joe Sestak has ended his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Sestak entered the race in June. He barely registered in polling and did not qualify for any of the party's debates.

Thank you for this opportunity! pic.twitter.com/mW5Qdi3bhT

— Joe Sestak (@JoeSestak) December 1, 2019

There are still 17 candidates vying for the nomination, 64 days before the February 3 Iowa caucuses. The party's final debate of the year will take place on December 19 in Los Angeles. 

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. You can reach Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz. 

Wyoming

The Strength and Weakness of Wyoming Voters

In presidential elections, Wyoming voters are electorally powerful but more-or-less ignored by the nominees. The state is the most over-represented in the Electoral College but has voted the same way for over half a century. 

Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg announced Sunday that he is running for president in 2020. 

I’m running for president to defeat Donald Trump and rebuild America.

I believe my unique set of experiences in business, government, and philanthropy will enable me to win and lead.

Join our team: https://t.co/7ezlUeouqH pic.twitter.com/IyOeS3aWaF

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