Election News

Rep. Sean Duffy will resign from Congress effective September 23. He made the announcement in a Facebook posting Monday morning, citing family issues. The five-term Republican represents Wisconsin's 7th congressional district. It is the state's largest district by area, covering much of the northern half of the state.

Duffy was preceded in Congress by Democrat Dave Obey, who served over 40 years before retiring in 2010. Duffy won that year by 8 points over Democrat Julie Lassa. The district was made more Republican in 2011 post-Census redistricting, leading to fairly easy reelection races for the incumbent. He won his final term by about 22% in 2018, about the same winning margin as President Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.  

Former Rep. Joe Walsh announced Sunday that he is running for president.  A Tea Party Republican, Walsh served one term in the House, winning the Illinois 8th district in 2010. The district became more favorable to Democrats after 2011 redistricting and Walsh lost to Tammy Duckworth in 2012. After leaving Congress, Walsh became a conservative talk radio personality.

Walsh is hoping a challenge from the right will appeal to both conservatives and the 'Never Trump' movement. However, he brings his own baggage to the race, which might make it difficult for him to credibly make the case to those looking for an alternativ. He has espoused birtherism and anti-Muslim rhetoric, as well as hate for his political opponents. He did express regret for those statements in a recent New York Times op-ed.

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton ended his campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination on Friday.  He becomes the 3rd candidate to drop out of the race in the past eight days, following Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper.  None of these candidates were able to break through in a very crowded Democratic field.

Moulton will run for a 4th term in Congress. While the district is safely Democratic, his presidential ambitions have opened the door to at least two primary challengers in 2020.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Wednesday that he was ending his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. He made the announcement on The Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC.

Inslee's campaign was largely focused around the issue of climate change. However, he was unable to gain much traction in a crowded Democratic field and was not going to qualify for the upcoming September debate.

Joe Biden is well out in front in a new national CNN poll. His 29% equals the combined total of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris are tied for fourth at 5%. These results are in line with the overall national polling averages for recent polls.

Comparing these results to the prior CNN poll - taken just after the first debate - shows that the bump Harris received from her performance has evaporated, with Biden regaining much of the share he lost. The support for Warren and Sanders is essentially unchanged.

New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Luján announced his support for an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. Luján, who is the Assistant Speaker and a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, becomes the highest-ranking Democrat to back impeachment thus far. He becomes the 125th member to support an inquiry. Click the map for a full list.

John Hickenlooper announced Thursday that he is ending his campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination. The former Colorado governor had struggled to gain traction in a very crowded field.

Rep. Debra Haaland (NM-1) today became the 121st Democrat in the House to support an impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump.  114 members do not currently support that action.  Here's a map tracking those with the 2020 consensus rating for each district. Click or tap the map for more info, including the full list.

As might be expected, a significantly larger number of Democrats from swing districts are on this list, including 30 of the 31 districts that voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. 43 of the 114 Democrats are from seats seen as at least somewhat competitive next year.   Also on the list are most of the top leadership in the House, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The Democratic Party awards bonus delegates as a reward to locations that wait until later in the calendar to hold their primary or caucus. With the 2020 election calendar mostly set, a pretty good estimate of those bonus delegates can be calculated. 

The following remains subject to change should any calendar dates change. 

24 locations (21 states, DC, Guam and Virgin Islands) will receive a total of 211 bonus delegates for holding their 2020 nominating contest after March 31.  These are pledged delegates, bringing that total to 3,979. As such, the 'magic number' for winning on the first ballot is increased from 1,885 to 1,990. The total number of delegates, including 766 automatic delegates^, is now 4,745.

Rep. Kenny Marchant said Monday that he would not seek reelection in 2020. He becomes the 4th member of the GOP Texas delegation to retire since July 25th. Overall, 11 Republicans and 3 Democrats have announced plans to retire or run for another office in 2020.

Marchant's 24th congressional district is situated between Dallas and Fort Worth, and has become increasingly competitive in recent years. In 2014, Marchant won by 33% over his Democratic opponent; that dropped to 17% in 2016 and just 3% in 2018. At the presidential level, Mitt Romney won here by 22% in 2012, while Donald Trump's margin was just 6%.