Election News

Rep. Ted Deutch (FL-22) announced Monday that he will not seek reelection in November. Deutch is expected to leave Congress in the fall as he takes on a new role as CEO of the American Jewish Committee. He is the 31st Democrat to retire or run for other office this year.

Please read my full statement here ????https://t.co/aZnZMV27oc pic.twitter.com/LTtY5SRInl

— Rep. Ted Deutch (@RepTedDeutch) February 28, 2022

Deutch is in his 7th term and currently represents the 22nd district. In its current form, this coastal district runs from north of Boca Raton to south of Fort Lauderdale. Deutch was reelected by a 17% margin in 2020. 

With 28 congressional districts for the next decade, Florida is the largest of six states that has not yet completed redistricting. While Republicans control the entire process, there has been considerable disagreement both in the Legislature and between the Legislature and Gov. Ron DeSantis about how aggressively the party should push its advantage. 

Oklahoma Rep. Markwayne Mullin said Saturday that he will run in the state's special U.S. Senate election this year. Mullin joins what is likely to be a crowded GOP primary field looking to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) who announced his retirement on Friday.

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Mullin is in his fifth term representing the Oklahoma's 2nd district, which runs the length of the eastern part of the state. This deep red - even by Oklahoma standards - district was little changed in redistricting; Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden by 54% in both configurations.

Jim Inhofe announced Friday that he will retire from the U.S. Senate at the end of the year. The Oklahoma Republican, now 87, was elected to his 6th term in 2020.

It is bittersweet, but with a clear heart, that Kay and I announce that at the end of the year, I will retire from the United States Senate.

My full statement below. pic.twitter.com/nEDbmJJjEQ

— Sen. Jim Inhofe (@JimInhofe) February 25, 2022

A special election to complete the remaining four years of Inhofe's term will take place concurrent with the November midterm elections. As Inhofe is remaining in the Senate until the end of this Congress, no interim appointment will be needed.

The move means both of the state's U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot this year. In the regularly-scheduled election, Republican Sen. James Langford will be seeking his 3rd term.

The primary is June 28, with a runoff August 23 for races where no candidate gets a majority of the vote. In a state as red as Oklahoma, the Republican nominee is all but certain to be the winner in November.

Congressional redistricting is now complete in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The 2022 House Interactive Map has been updated with shapes for the 31 total districts in these two states. 

Pennsylvania: The State Supreme Court took over the redistricting process after the Republican-controlled legislature and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf couldn't agree on a plan. After considering over a dozen maps, it implemented one drawn by Jonathon Rodden, a Stanford professor and redistricting expert. Rodden went with a 'least change' approach, although some change was unavoidable given the state is losing a district. According to FiveThirtyEight, "The new map drops one Republican-leaning seat to leave eight Republican-leaning seats, six Democratic-leaning seats and three highly competitive seats."

This week we're following elections to fill State House vacancies in Connecticut and Kentucky. 

Connecticut State House District 71

Democrats hold a sizeable 96-53 majority over Republicans in the Connecticut State House. There are two vacancies. The vacancy in District 5 will be contested next Tuesday. Members serve two year terms; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 71 is located in the west central part of the state, and includes Middlebury and parts of Waterbury. The previous incumbent, Republican Anthony D'Amelio, retired December 31 after 25 years in office. In 2018, the last contested election here, D'Amelio won by 59% to 37% over his Democratic challenger.

The party nominees are Republican William Pizzuto and Democrat John Egan. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

On Friday, Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) signed the congressional redistricting bill advanced to his desk by the Legislature. The map is little-changed from the one in place over the past decade.

Democrats, who completely controlled the redistricting process, did not take advantage of an opportunity to improve the partisan lean of District 2, where incumbent Jim Langevin (D) is retiring. Although it strongly favors Democrats, the district is somewhat more competitive than District 1. Republicans, who haven't won a U.S. House seat in the state since 1992, will attempt to contest it this year. Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung is the most well-known of several Republicans to jump into the race.

Rhode Island shapes have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.

Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-01) died Thursday night. He was 59 years old. First elected in 2018, Hagedorn was diagnosed with stage 4 kidney cancer in 2019. After treatment, the cancer went into remission, but recurred last summer. His wife, Jennifer Carnahan, paid tribute to him in a Facebook posting.

Hagedorn won his second term by a 3% margin over Democrat Dan Feehan in 2020. Minnesota completed congressional redistricting earlier this week; the first district saw little change and will continue to span the length of the southernmost part of the state. Under the redistricted boundaries, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by about 9.5% points in 2020, down just slightly from 10% points under the current boundaries.

Connecticut, Kansas and Washington finalized their congressional redistricting last week. Minnesota was completed Tuesday. These shapes, with initial ratings, have been added to the House Interactive Map.

On Tuesday, we are following five special elections. Voters will fill vacancies in two New York State Assembly districts. Across the country, there are two contests for vacancies in the California State Assembly. These are technically primaries, although at least one of them will not require a general election. Finally, Milwaukee voters will begin the process of electing a new mayor via a nonpartisan primary.

New York State Assembly Districts 60 and 72

The lower chamber of the New York Legislature is dominated by Democrats, who currently hold 104 of 150 seats. There are 43 Republicans and 1 Independence Party member. The two vacancies will be filled in Tuesday's special election. Both are safely Democratic seats in New York City.

Assembly members serve two year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections are in November. Those will be contested under redistricted boundaries.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY-04) will not seek reelection this year. In her 4th term, Rice becomes the 30th Democratic House member to retire or seek another office. 

As I turn to the next chapter of my own personal and professional story, I do so with profound thanks to the community leaders, colleagues and staff who have lived our shared commitment to service with courage and humility. pic.twitter.com/GBVvtrWpia

— Kathleen Rice (@RepKathleenRice) February 15, 2022

New York's 4th district includes parts of Nassau County on Long Island. The current boundaries are shown in the image below; there was very little change in redistricting. Joe Biden has  a roughly 12% 2020 margin over Donald Trump in both the old and new map. The consensus rating is Likely Democratic.

Of the four congressional districts largely or entirely in Long Island, only Republican Andrew Garbarino is seeking another term. In addition to Rice's retirement, Republican Lee Zeldin (NY-01) and Democrat Tom Suozzi (NY-03) are running for governor.