Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated its 2020 election outlook, making changes to its Electoral College forecast, as well as in races for Senate, House and Governor.
Maps of the current Crystal Ball projections follow. (These images will automatically update for any subsequent ratings changes). Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.
On Wednesday, The Cook Political Report moved the South Carolina Senate election from Leans Republican to Toss-up. The race has shifted dramatically in the past five months: as recently as early May, the race was seen by Cook and most analysts as safe for incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Read the Cook analysis from Jessica Taylor
Graham is being challenged by Jaime Harrison, former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party. Harrison has outraised Graham, enabling him to get his message out. As Cook notes: "Harrison first went up on TV back in April with positive bio spots, and hasn’t gone dark since. That allowed Harrison to set the tenor of the race. And since then, he’s had a series of ads that are very clearly aimed at who they hope will be Graham’s Achilles Heel — white women. In several spots, middle age or senior women talk about how they were once longtime Graham voters but now see that he’s changed on health care and how Harrsion's "values" now more closely reflect their values. Harrison has made this race about character and in other Democratic ads they turn the tables and paint Graham as part of the "swamp," and that seems to be working."
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Politico reports that GOP Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania will not seek a third term in 2022. Toomey first won election to the Senate in 2010, narrowly defeating Democrat Joe Sestak.
That 2010 election was notable: the prior year, long-time incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party; he was defeated by Sestak in the primary.
Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated its election outlook, making 18 total ratings changes to its Electoral College and congressional forecasts.
Maps of the current Crystal Ball projections follow. (These images will automatically update for any subsequent ratings changes). Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.
Our consensus electoral map combines nine different forecasts to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. It is a mixture of full-time analysts (e.g., Cook Political), statistical models (e.g., FiveThirtyEight), prediction markets (e.g., PredictIt) and media analysis (e.g., CNN).
Each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up) has a point value.1 1A ten-point scale is used. Positive and negative values are used to offset disagreements across forecasters about who is ahead. Toss-ups receive a score of zero. We add up the points for each state and divide the total by nine to get the average.
Original Consensus Map
Voters in Georgia's 5th congressional district go to the polls Tuesday to choose a replacement for the late Rep. John Lewis. The civil rights icon died in July at 80; he was in his 17th term.
Results will appear here after the polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
The November election in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district will be delayed after the death of Adam Charles Weeks, nominee of the Legal Marijuana Now Party. The seat will be vacant from the start of the 117th Congress in January until after a special election is held on February 9, 2021.
Per Minnesota law, if a major party nominee dies within 79 days of Election Day, a special election will be held on the second Tuesday of February. The Legal Marijuana Now Party qualifies as a major party in the state.
FiveThirtyEight recently added a Senate forecast to its website. As of this writing, their model gives Democrats a 62% probability of winning control. The most likely outcomes are a 50-50 split, followed by a 51-49 Democratic margin. In a 50-50 split, the outcome of the presidential election will determine Senate control. The 62% figure is therefore somewhat influenced by the site's presidential forecast.
