Election News

The vote by mail Hawaii primary is Saturday. Live results for the contested primaries in the state's two congressional districts will be available after 1:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.

There's not a lot of suspense here in terms of the general election. Both districts in this deep blue state were won by a margin of over 50% in 2018. They are both safely Democratic this November.

The one primary to watch is for the Democratic nomination in District 2. Incumbent Tulsi Gabbard did not pursue a 5th term in an unsuccessful effort to win the party's presidential nomination. 

Inside Elections updated their 2020 House outlook on Friday. The forecaster moved the ratings of 29 seats, 27 of them favoring Democrats.  From their analysis:

"Not only is the majority all-but-completely out of reach for this fall as initial GOP takeover targets are dropping completely off the list of competitive races, but dozens of Republican incumbents previously regarded as safe for re-election are vulnerable as Trump underperforms his 2016 totals by 8-10 points or more around the country. It’s certainly possible that a House candidate overperforms the top of the ticket. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that presidential results and House results match up at least 90 percent of the time."

Here's the updated Inside Elections map. Click/tap for an interactive version. A tweet listing all the changes follows the map.

Tennessee is the only state in the country to have a Thursday downballot primary. That day of the week is specified in the state's original constitution and has never been modified.  

All polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.  

All Tennessee Results >>

Five states held their primaries on Tuesday. Click or tap to view full live results by state:

Kansas Republicans solidify general election prospects:  Rep. Roger Marshall defeated former Secretary of State Kris Kobach to win the GOP Senate nomination, while in District 2, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner ousted incumbent Rep. Steve Watkins. In both cases, voters chose the candidate favored by party leaders and who likely had the best general election prospects. 

Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. While the race isn't completely off the competitive radar - Democratic nominee State Sen. Barbara Bollier is a credible nominee - the controversial Kobach would have been a tougher sell to the full electorate. The same could be said of Watkins, who was recently charged with multiple felonies. Cook Political moved this Topeka-area district from Leans to Likely Republican.

After a two week break, the primary calendar picks up again Tuesday.  Five states hold congressional primaries; two of those also will finalize their nominees for governor. All eyes will be on the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Kansas. (View Live Results) The choice party voters make may well impact how competitive the November general election is - and, in turn, may be the deciding factor in which party controls the Senate in 2021.

There are a number of other races of interest.  See below for more information on those, as well as links to all the results for each state.

Looking ahead, Tennessee follows with primaries on Thursday. As in Kansas, Republican voters there will also choose a nominee to replace a retiring Senator. That winner will be heavily favored in November. On Saturday, there are a few congressional primaries in Hawaii. Next Tuesday, four states are on the calendar, including the final presidential primary in Connecticut.   

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator.  This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).

Bellwether:  Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.

Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

The Cook Political Report has updated its electoral college outlook, making for changes. The most significant of these has Florida moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. 

Read Amy Walter's analysis of Florida >>

In addition, Indiana, Kansas and Missouri were reclassified from Safe to Likely Republican. 

The Cook Political Report has made five changes to its 2020 Senate forecast.  Read the full analysis here.

• Arizona moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic
• Georgia (regular) and Iowa move from Leans Republican to Toss-up
• Minnesota and New Mexico move from Likely to Safe Democratic

The updated map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.