The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan has become the first Libertarian member of Congress. The move comes just days after the Republican-turned-independent announced his intention to run for president. Libertarians will select a nominee at the party's convention, which begins May 22.
To focus on his presidential bid, Amash also announced last week that he would not stand for reelection to his current seat. This may have reflected a political reality - his prospects for winning a 6th term had grown dimmer. In addition, Michigan law precludes someone from running simultaneously for both offices.
U.S. House
With the move by Amash, the U.S. House now has 232 Democrats, 196 Republicans and one Libertarian. There are six vacancies. One of these, in Maryland's 7th district, will be filled by Democrat Kweisi Mfume, who won a special election there last week. Special elections to fill two other seats are upcoming next Tuesday, May 12. These are in California's 25th district and Wisconsin's 7th district.
Joe Biden won the Kansas Democratic primary, with about 77% of the vote. Unlike many states, the event was not moved due to the coronavirus. However, it transitioned to a contest conducted entirely by mail - with ballots due back no later than the scheduled May 2 date.
Biden won 29 of the state's 39 pledged delegates. He now has 1,435 of the 1,991 needed to clinch the party's nomination, per NPR and the Associated Press. Note that this delegate count has been revised slightly to reflect a recent agreement between the Biden and Sanders campaign that allows the Vermont Senator to retain statewide delegates, which would normally not be the case per Democratic party rules.
Forecasters at the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have moved the South Carolina Senate race from Safe to Likely Republican. The Crystal Ball has also made that same ratings change in Alaska. These seats remain longshot pickup opportunities for Democrats - particularly given the history of Senate races in presidential election years - but conditions on the ground indicate they have at least some possibility of becoming competitive.
On Tuesday, we'll have results from the Ohio primary and a special election in Maryland's 7th congressional district. Ohio results are expected after 7:30 PM Eastern Time, while those in Maryland should arrive after 8:00 PM.
Ohio
Ballots had to be postmarked by yesterday, but can still be dropped off today in drop boxes. Any ballots with a timely postmark received by May 8 will be counted, so it is possible that close races may not be called tonight.
President: The state postponed its primary on the eve of the scheduled March 17 date, ultimately turning it into an all-mail election, with few exceptions. While Joe Biden is expected to win most of the state's 136 pledged delegates, Bernie Sanders - and many other withdrawn candidates - remain on the ballot. Heading into today, Biden has 1,305 of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination. On the GOP side, Donald Trump is unopposed. He has already clinched renomination.
Editor's Note: We're pleased to welcome Drew Savicki, who is taking over The Road to 270 beginning this week. Drew kicks things off with Connecticut, his state of birth. Special thanks to Seth Moskowitz for his work bringing this series to life; we wish him well as he moves on to a new career opportunity.
===
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.
Illinois
Illinois was once America’s political bellwether. From 1896 to 1996 the state regularly swung between the parties and voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election except for two. But since 1992, it has voted Democratic in every presidential election. Why is the state that is most demographically similar to the nation overall no longer a swing state? In short, Democrats traded voters in shrinking rural Illinois for voters in Chicago and the suburbs. The longer story starts before Illinois was a state.
The state's presidential nominating contest was originally to be in-person caucuses on April 4. Due to the coronavirus, the party transitioned to running the event entirely by mail. Ballots needed to be received by Friday, April 17.
On April 7, Wisconsin went ahead with its scheduled presidential primary, along with a few other races, the most notable of which is the general election for a 10-year term on the State's Supreme Court. Following two court rulings, the absentee ballot deadline - for ballots postmarked by April 7 - was extended until Monday, April 13 at 4:00 local time (5:00 PM Eastern).
Results will appear below - as they become available - after 5:00 PM Eastern Time.
Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign on April 8, making Joe Biden the party's presumptive nominee. Since this was after both the in-person voting as well as the deadline for absentee ballots to be postmarked, the move won't have influenced the outcome of this race.
The state has 84 pledged delegates. Note that with Sanders withdrawal, he can no longer earn statewide delegates, per Democratic National Committee rules. We saw the impact of that in this past weekend's Alaska primary results. What would have likely been an 8-7 Biden delegate advantage ended up as 11-4 in favor of the former vice president. In Wisconsin, 29 of the delegates are statewide, so it is the remaining 55 - split across the state's 8 congressional districts - that will be allocated proportionately based on the results in each district.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.
Louisiana
From the Democratic Party’s founding in 1828 through 1944, Louisiana voted for its nominee in all but three of the elections in which it participated. Since 2000, however, the state has been safely Republican and getting more so. The once dominant Protestant-Catholic divide has given way to a Urban-Rural one, a gap seemingly too large for Democratic candidates to overcome. But in 2019, a Democrat did just that by winning the state’s gubernatorial election. This victory does not make Louisiana a realistic Democratic pickup in this November’s presidential election. To understand why, we’ll trace Louisiana’s history from pre-statehood though 2020.
