The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Maryland

Maryland is one of the most liberal states in the country. In 2011, the state legislature passed a bill to provide in-state tuition to undocumented immigrants; a year later Marylanders voted to legalize same-sex marriage in a popular referendum. In 2012 and 2016, it gave Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton over 60% of the popular vote. It might be surprising, then, that such a liberal bastion elected a Republican, Larry Hogan, as governor in 2014 and again in 2018. Hogan, however, is a moderate on social issues while more conservative on fiscal ones. This ideological mix suits the state’s diverse, college educated, and wealthy population. To understand how Maryland became the nation’s richest state as well as one of its most diverse, we’ll go back to its pre-statehood history.

Catholic Refuge to Statehood

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced Monday that he will run for Senate this year.

I've always fought for the people of Montana. Together, we expanded health care, protected public lands, banned dark money in politics & more. Now I'm taking that fight to the US Senate. Let’s make Washington work more like Montana. Join us: https://t.co/vyPPioB0tJ #MTSen #MTpol pic.twitter.com/6VuCKsNTeW

— Steve Bullock (@stevebullockmt) March 9, 2020

Bullock is unable - due to term limits - from seeking a third term as the state's governor in 2020.  He ran for president over the second half of 2019 before dropping out in December. He had previously resisted efforts from within the party to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines, but ultimately acquiesced.  Today is the candidate filing deadline in the state.

Bullock's candidacy moves the Senate seat onto the competitive map, with a consensus Leans Republican rating.  While still underdogs in this deep red state, it does give Democrats an additional path to pick up the 3 or 4 seats needed to take control in 2021. The number may more realistically be 4 or 5 seats, as the GOP is favored to recapture the Alabama seat in a presidential election year with a popular Republican incumbent on the ballot.

Based on consensus, the four most competitive races are in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. All these seats are GOP-held.

352 pledged delegates, across six states, are available in Tuesday's Democratic nominating contests. Here are the latest polling averages in each of those states, as Monday morning, March 9. 

Note that given the much smaller field, we have only averaged polls released after Super Tuesday, March 3.  We've also plugged these averages into our Delegate Calculator (create your forecast here) to get a sense of how the delegate split might look.  

Live Results

The following states hold their regular primary elections as well. We'll have results for any contested Senate, House or gubernatorial races. 

_{Arkansas also has non-presidential primaries; there are no contested races we are tracking.}

Polls Close (Eastern Time)

_{Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this to determine when to vote. Total Democratic pledged delegates by closing time are displayed.}

_{*Polls close 7:00 PM local time. That's 8:00 PM ET in all but the far western part of the state.}

Democratic Polling Averages & Delegate Estimates

There are two new surveys for each of the 14 states that vote today. This gives us more information, particularly in places where polling was minimal or non-existent. The smaller field is likely to increase the number of candidates hitting the 15% threshold in several states, which will flatten the distribution of delegates. 

For polling detail, click or tap the image below and select a state on the linked page. 

Sen. Amy Klobuchar will suspend her campaign and endorse former vice-president Joe Biden later Monday. The move comes one day prior to Super Tuesday, where her home state of Minnesota will join 13 others in awarding over 1/3 of the total 3,979 delegates available this year.

Klobuchar finished third in New Hampshire but had been unable to replicate that performance in the other early states. In Super Tuesday states, she was only tracking to earn delegates in Minnesota, where she held a small lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders in limited polling. 

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Tennessee

Tennessee has a history of distinguishing itself from its southern neighbors. It resisted secession and the Civil War, was first to break the "Solid South" electoral block, and was home to the first southern city to desegregate.  This independent streak goes back to Tennessee's earliest days before it was a state. 

Statehood and Early Presidential Politics

Former South Bend Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg will suspend his campaign Sunday night.  Buttigieg earned delegates in the first three Democratic contests, but saw limited support from Latinos in Nevada, finishing third overall. In South Carolina, he finished fourth, receiving only 3% support from blacks, who make up a majority of the electorate there. 

The move comes two days before Super Tuesday and will free up his supporters to vote for other moderate candidates. During last week's debate, Buttigieg had said that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was too radical to beat President Trump.

This Tuesday, Democrats in 14 states will go to the polls.  Collectively, they will award over one-third of all 3,979 pledged delegates available this year.  Here are the latest polling averages in each of those states, as of late Sunday morning, March 1.  

For polling detail, click or tap the image below and select a state on the linked page.

The final Democratic primary before Super Tuesday will see South Carolina voters cast their ballots.  Live results and projected delegate allocations will be available here after the 7:00 PM Eastern poll closing time.

Most presidential election forecasts at this point - and thus the consensus electoral map - are based on a generic Democratic nominee against President Trump.  That means the forecasts are largely driven by history, with some consideration given to the incumbent's popularity and the state of the economy. It is also why there aren't that many forecasts yet and why those that have been released have not shifted very much.  

All of that will begin to change once we know who the Democratic nominee will be, as each has strengths and weaknesses that will impact their likelihood of prevailing in the battleground states. 

To that end, Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with a hypothetical preview of how its Electoral College ratings might shift if Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders becomes the presumptive nominee. They see the southern states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas being less attainable Democratic pickups in 2020. These 98 electoral votes could shift from Leans to Likely Republican. Virginia is seen as moving from Likely to Leans Democratic. Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd District - could move from Toss-up to Leans Republican.