Election News

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Kentucky

Kentucky is all but certain to vote for Donald Trump in November. It has voted Republican at the presidential level - with few exceptions - since 1956. The president carried the state by 30% in 2016, continuing a fairly consistent trend of increasing GOP margins in each election since 2000. 

Given this inevitability, the second half of this piece is dedicated to the boogeyman of the left, Mitch McConnell. Democrats revile the cunning effectiveness of the Senate Majority Leader and hope, perhaps naively, to oust him in November.

Polling from Nevada is very infrequent; this is the first we've seen since the middle of January.

Bernie Sanders leads Joe Biden by seven points in The Nevada Poll^TM, conducted by WPA Intelligence, that was released Friday.  Sanders saw 25% support to Biden's 18%; both candidates are polling statewide above the 15% threshold for winning delegates.  Also in double-digits are the four other candidates actively campaigning here:  Elizabeth Warren (13%), Tom Steyer (11%), Pete Buttigieg (10%) and Amy Klobuchar (10%). 

Sen. Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary, narrowly beating out Pete Buttigieg. Sen. Amy Klobuchar came in a strong third. The three split the state's 24 delegates.  

As of Wednesday morning, with 91% of precincts reporting, Sanders held a 1.6% lead over Buttigieg, with each getting about 25% of the statewide vote. Klobuchar, at about 20%, easily outperformed her polling numbers.  Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished well back, each seeing under 10% support.

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet is dropping out of the presidential race. Bennet had positioned himself as a moderate in the large Democratic field, but that translated into little support.  He was averaging at less than 1% nationally, and was seeing similar results in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

Enterpreneur Andrew Yang ended his pursuit of the Democratic nomination on Tuesday. Yang had made a name for himself via his proposal of a $1,000 monthly universal basic income to help offset the reality that automation was significantly displacing workers. Yang believed this environment led to Donald Trump's victory in 2016.

The first New Hampshire primary was held in March, 1916. In 1920, it moved to the front of the primary calendar; the state has maintained this first-in-the-nation status for the past 100 years. 

Three small towns in New Hampshire cast their votes overnight, just after midnight. If you are viewing this page prior to 7:00 PM ET, when polls close in much of the state, those are the results you will see.  Results are expected shortly after 7:00 PM and will automatically update on this page. The final polls close at 8:00 PM.

Democratic Primary

There has been no shortage of Democratic polling in advance of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The results have been fairly consistent in recent days, with Sanders and Buttigieg running 1-2. Amy Klobuchar has seen gains, while Joe Biden has been fading. If the polls are accurate, Biden, Klobuchar and Warren should finish 3rd to 5th in some order; it remains to be seen if any (or all) of them are able to meet the 15% threshold for delegates.

For the Republicans, Donald Trump is averaging 83.3%, with former Gov. Bill Weld of neighboring Massachusetts at 9.5%.  22 delegates will be allocated proportionately to candidates getting 10% or higher. The suspense, if any, is whether Weld will cross that 10% threshold. 

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

California

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats netted 41 House seats and took control of the House of Representatives. They did so in large part by flipping suburban districts across the country that were once safely Republican. No place better illustrates this political realignment than Orange County, California. This county was once a breeding ground for Republicans including Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. In 2018, Democrats flipped four congressional districts in Orange County. The county that Reagan called the place “where the good Republicans go to die” became ground zero for the 2018 blue wave. Democrats now hold 45 seats in the California House delegation and Republicans hold six.^{1 1}There are two vacancies. Prior to that, Democrats held a 46-7 edge.

California, however, wasn’t always the Democratic stronghold it is today. From 1952 to 1988 it only voted for one Democratic presidential nominee. Recently, though, demographic changes like those that overwhelmed Republicans in Orange County have pushed California ever deeper into Democratic territory.

With 100% of precincts now reporting, Pete Buttigieg has emerged from the Iowa caucuses with the most delegates to the national convention.

Buttigieg won 26.2% of state delegate equivalents, edging Sanders who had 26.1%.  That translated into a 14-12 edge for the former South Bend mayor. Elizabeth Warren had 18%, good for eight delegates while Joe Biden with 15.8% was fourth. Amy Klobuchar was fifth with 12.3%. Despite being below 15% statewide, she had enough strength in parts of the state to secure a single delegate.

Per calculations from The Associated Press, Pete Buttigieg has captured 13 pledged delegates from Iowa, with Bernie Sanders one back at 12. Elizabeth Warren has won eight, Joe Biden six, and Amy Klobuchar one.  One delegate remains to be allocated.