Election News

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Utah

From 2012 to 2016, the state that saw the biggest swing towards the Democratic presidential nominee was not deep blue California or Hawaii. Instead, it was staunchly Republican Utah. The state that gave Mitt Romney a 48% margin over Barack Obama (his largest in the nation) shifted 30% towards Democrats and gave Donald Trump a far smaller 18% victory over Hillary Clinton. Utah's history, perhaps more than any other state's, is key to understanding these contemporary trends. We’ll start with its journey to statehood.  

Pre-Statehood

The Democratic National Committee has postponed its national convention from July 13 to August 17 because of the coronavirus. The convention will still take place in Milwaukee. The revised date is one week prior to the Republican convention in Charlotte.

This change is reflected on the 2020 Election Calendar, where you can also see the numerous states that have rescheduled their primaries.

Note:  The team at Sabato's Crystal Ball is holding a livestreamed discussion of the 2020 political landscape today at noon Eastern Time.  It is free; no registration is required.  Watch it here.

Rep. Mark Meadows resigned from the U.S. House Monday.  He will assume the post of White House Chief of Staff Tuesday, succeeding Mick Mulvaney.  Meadows has been acting in that role for President Trump in recent weeks. For example, he represented the president on the recent $2.2. trillion response to the coronavirus.

Meadows was in his 4th term representing North Carolina's 11th district. This is a fairly safe GOP district, despite the inclusion of the more liberal Asheville area in recent court-ordered redistricting.  A special election, if one is held, may be concurrent with the November 3 general election. Gov. Roy Cooper will make that determination.

There are now six vacancies in the U.S. House.  Democrats control 232 seats, Republicans 196 and one independent.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island

Rhode Island was more competitive in the 2016 than it has been since 1988. Given that Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 16%, this means little for its top-line electoral fortunes in November. It could, however, indicate a future where Republicans can credibly compete.

New York will delay its presidential primary and 27th congressional district special election from April 28 to June 23. That is the previously scheduled date for the state's non-presidential primaries. The congressional seat has been vacant since Rep. Chris Collins resigned last September.

With this move, a rescheduled Ohio contest is the only one remaining on April 28, which was to have been the second busiest day on the 2020 Democratic calendar. That now looks to be June 2 with 686 pledged delegates available across 10 states and Washington, D.C.  The month of June now potentially has 1,075 delegates up for grabs, almost 2/3 of the 1,668 remaining from contests not yet held.

We say potentially because Louisiana, Kentucky and now New York have scheduled their contests after June 9, the latest allowable date per Democratic Party rules.  It is possible the states could be penalized with a loss of half of their delegates.  That seems unlikely given the situation, but those are the rules as written.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Kansas

Kansas has been one of the most consistently Republican states since its founding. It has voted accordingly in each presidential election except seven. Its current Republican streak goes back to 1964 and before that to 1936. Kansas also produced some of the 20^th Century’s most influential Republicans — Dwight Eisenhower, Bob Dole, Alf Landon among them — yet still elected a Democrat as governor in 2018.

Kansas is also the political and demographic sibling of the state we covered last week, Nebraska. You can find that piece here if you are interested in comparing the two.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii announced Thursday that she was ending her bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Gabbard will throw her support behind former Vice-President Joe Biden.

Joe Biden swept Tuesday's primaries in Arizona, Florida and Illinois. When all is final, he will likely have more than doubled his delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. 

As of this morning, Biden has just under 60% of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination. Sanders would need to win about 63% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. The increasingly difficult math, as well as a presidential contest essentially now on hold due to the coronavirus, has the campaign assessing how to proceed.  

Donald Trump has surpassed 1,276 delegates, clinching the 2020 Republican nomination.  Wins Tuesday in Florida and Illinois put the president over the top.

Trump has won every delegate thus far, except for one in Iowa. However, Iowa rules specify that delegate can vote for Trump if he is the only candidate nominated, which seems likely.