The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island

Rhode Island was more competitive in the 2016 than it has been since 1988. Given that Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 16%, this means little for its top-line electoral fortunes in November. It could, however, indicate a future where Republicans can credibly compete.

New York will delay its presidential primary and 27th congressional district special election from April 28 to June 23. That is the previously scheduled date for the state's non-presidential primaries. The congressional seat has been vacant since Rep. Chris Collins resigned last September.

With this move, a rescheduled Ohio contest is the only one remaining on April 28, which was to have been the second busiest day on the 2020 Democratic calendar. That now looks to be June 2 with 686 pledged delegates available across 10 states and Washington, D.C.  The month of June now potentially has 1,075 delegates up for grabs, almost 2/3 of the 1,668 remaining from contests not yet held.

We say potentially because Louisiana, Kentucky and now New York have scheduled their contests after June 9, the latest allowable date per Democratic Party rules.  It is possible the states could be penalized with a loss of half of their delegates.  That seems unlikely given the situation, but those are the rules as written.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Kansas

Kansas has been one of the most consistently Republican states since its founding. It has voted accordingly in each presidential election except seven. Its current Republican streak goes back to 1964 and before that to 1936. Kansas also produced some of the 20^th Century’s most influential Republicans — Dwight Eisenhower, Bob Dole, Alf Landon among them — yet still elected a Democrat as governor in 2018.

Kansas is also the political and demographic sibling of the state we covered last week, Nebraska. You can find that piece here if you are interested in comparing the two.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii announced Thursday that she was ending her bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Gabbard will throw her support behind former Vice-President Joe Biden.

Joe Biden swept Tuesday's primaries in Arizona, Florida and Illinois. When all is final, he will likely have more than doubled his delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. 

As of this morning, Biden has just under 60% of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination. Sanders would need to win about 63% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. The increasingly difficult math, as well as a presidential contest essentially now on hold due to the coronavirus, has the campaign assessing how to proceed.  

Donald Trump has surpassed 1,276 delegates, clinching the 2020 Republican nomination.  Wins Tuesday in Florida and Illinois put the president over the top.

Trump has won every delegate thus far, except for one in Iowa. However, Iowa rules specify that delegate can vote for Trump if he is the only candidate nominated, which seems likely.

Live Results

Illinois and Ohio (postponed) hold their regular primary elections as well. We'll have results for any contested congressional races.

Polls Close (Eastern Time)

_{Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this to determine when to vote. Total Democratic pledged delegates by closing time are displayed.}

_{¹ Most of the state is in this time zone. Some results may display during this hour, but no race call will be made until all the polls are closed.}

Democratic Polling Averages & Delegate Estimates

Joe Biden is polling well ahead of Bernie Sanders in each of three states going forward with their scheduled primaries. While Sanders is expected to earn delegates, the end of the night may see the former Vice-President's delegate advantage more than double.

For polling detail, see the Democratic nomination home page. Select a state on the map. To see delegate information for completed contests and create your own forecast, see the interactive delegate calculator.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Nebraska

Nebraska is all but certain to vote for Donald Trump this November. The state, however, is one of two that awards Electoral College votes by congressional district. Nebraska’s second district is far more competitive than the state as a whole and could prove decisive in a close presidential election. As such, this week’s article will be a little different than usual. The first half will focus on Nebraska’s history and political landscape at large and the second half will zoom in to the competitive Omaha-based district.

Road to Statehood

Georgia has rescheduled its presidential primary from March 24 to May 19, which is the scheduled date for the state's non-presidential primaries. It becomes the second state to do so in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Louisiana made a similar move yesterday, postponing its primary from April 4 to June 20.

Tuesday, March 17 is the third largest date - in terms of available delegates - on the Democratic primary calendar in 2020.  Voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona will cast their ballots. A total of 577 delegates is available. This trails only Super Tuesday and April 28. The latter date is the so-called 'Acela Primary' across six East Coast states.

Here are the latest polling averages in each of those states, as of Saturday, March 14.  Note that we have only averaged polls released after Super Tuesday, March 3.  We've also plugged these averages into our Delegate Calculator (create your forecast here) to get a sense of how the delegate split might look.  

At this point, Joe Biden leads in each of the four states, with that lead largest in Florida, the most delegate-rich opportunity on Tuesday. It is quite possible that the former Vice President will more than double his current delegate lead over Bernie Sanders.