Election News

Most presidential election forecasts at this point - and thus the consensus electoral map - are based on a generic Democratic nominee against President Trump.  That means the forecasts are largely driven by history, with some consideration given to the incumbent's popularity and the state of the economy. It is also why there aren't that many forecasts yet and why those that have been released have not shifted very much.  

All of that will begin to change once we know who the Democratic nominee will be, as each has strengths and weaknesses that will impact their likelihood of prevailing in the battleground states. 

To that end, Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with a hypothetical preview of how its Electoral College ratings might shift if Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders becomes the presumptive nominee. They see the southern states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas being less attainable Democratic pickups in 2020. These 98 electoral votes could shift from Leans to Likely Republican. Virginia is seen as moving from Likely to Leans Democratic. Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd District - could move from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham said Wednesday that he will not seek reelection in 2020.  In his announcement, Abraham cited a commitment he made as a candidate in 2014 to only serve three terms in Congress.  The decision also comes after an unsuccessful run for governor in 2019.

Today, I am officially announcing my retirement from Congress following the completion of my current third term. I am forever grateful to the people of Louisiana for entrusting me with their representation in the US House of Representatives. pic.twitter.com/qbsx3yJrTx

— Rep. Ralph Abraham (@RepAbraham) February 26, 2020

Abraham represents Louisiana's fifth congressional district, its largest one by area. It covers much of the northeastern part of the state, including the entire border with Mississippi. It is a safely Republican district; Abraham won his 2018 election by 37%, while Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by nearly 30%.

37 current members of the House have announced they are retiring or seeking another office in 2020.

As the vote count in Nevada nears completion, it looks like Bernie Sanders will win 24 of the state's 36 pledged delegates. Joe Biden will add nine to his total, with Pete Buttigieg earning three. Sanders takes the lead in delegates with 45.

In the interest of transparency, several vote counts were released by the Nevada Democratic Party.  The delegate allocation above is based on the number of county convention delegates earned.  However, it is not a direct relationship.  As in other states, Nevada's delegates to the national convention are divided up by geography.  In this case, 13 delegates were based on the statewide vote, with the other 23 split across the state's four congressional districts.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts has raised some of our most famous and powerful political figures. John Adams, Daniel Webster, Calvin Coolidge, John F. Kennedy and George H.W. Bush - to name just a few - all have roots in this small, New England commonwealth. In recent presidential elections Massachusetts has been one of the most Democratic states in the nation. It was the only one to vote for Democrat George McGovern in the Republican landslide of 1972.

It wasn’t always this way. In fact, Massachusetts wouldn’t vote for the Democratic Party until 1912, nearly a century after the party’s creation. Looking back at the state’s history helps to explain its flip from reliably Republican to staunchly Democratic.

Bernie Sanders was the clear winner in Saturday's Nevada Democratic caucuses. However, not all the results have been counted, and the Buttigieg campaign is questioning irregularities in the vote.  

The estimated delegate allocation for Nevada is below, as well as the total to date. You can also see the results for County Convention Delegates, which is the count that translates into national delegates. As of this writing, a majority of delegates remain to be allocated; the tables below will update as more information becomes available.

For more on the process, see our overview of the Nevada caucuses.

The Nevada Democratic Party holds its caucuses Saturday.  This was preceded, for the first time, by an early voting period that saw nearly as much voter participation as the entire caucus count in 2016. 

Saturday's caucuses begin at noon local time (3:00 PM ET).  Results will follow - at some point.  The Party plans to have results out today, and hopes to avoid the issues that caused extensive delays in Iowa.  However, this is structurally a similar event, so we'll have to see how it plays out. For its part, the State wants to make clear that it's not on them if there are problems.

As in Iowa, there will be three sets of numbers released. Live results will appear below. 

Round One - First Alignment:  This will be the initial preference of caucusgoers across the state. The percentage results here should be somewhat consistent with the statewide polling that has preceded the caucus (if that proves accurate - there hasn't been a lot of polling here). In the final average, Bernie Sanders had a sizable lead at 30% support, with Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren in the mid-teens. 

A new poll by Quinnipiac University of key rust belt swing states show President Trump ahead of each prospective Democratic nominee in Wisconsin while trailing in Pennsylvania.  The race is closer in Michigan, with some Democrats slightly ahead, others in a virtual tie.  All three states voted for Trump by less than 1% in 2016; their 46 combined electoral votes propelling the president to victory. It was the first time in a generation any of these states had voted for the Republican nominee in a presidential election.

A new update from Sabato's Crystal Ball indicates the prospects have dimmed a bit for the two most endangered Senate incumbents in 2020. The rating in Alabama has moved from Leans to Likely Republican, while in Colorado, the race has moved from Tossup to Leans Democratic.

In Alabama, Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is likely to face a more formidable GOP opponent than Roy Moore, who he defeated in a 2017 special election.  In addition, the vote will take place alongside the presidential election, which is likely to increase turnout heavily in support of Donald Trump.  The state's primary is March 3.

In Colorado, the analysis notes that Republican "Gardner has long appeared endangered by the Centennial State’s shift toward the Democrats. He has emphasized some local issues but has generally stuck with the president on the bigger-picture ones that are increasingly more salient in our nationalized elections. Gardner is in a tough spot: After distancing himself from Trump in 2016, Gardner risks losing his own base voters if he criticizes Trump, but if Trump again loses the state, voters may not have much reason to split their tickets in Gardner’s favor."

The presidential calendar is quiet Tuesday, but we will have results for the special primary election in Wisconsin's 7th congressional district.  The seat has been vacant since former Rep. Sean Duffy (R) resigned this past September to deal with family health issues. 

The nominees will meet in the general election on May 12, with the winner serving out the remainder of Duffy's term.  The seat, along with all others in the U.S. House, will be contested again in November.

The 7th district is the largest by land area in Wisconsin, covering the mostly rural northern third of the state.  Voters narrowly supported Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012, but swung sharply for Donald Trump in 2016; the president won here by 20 points over Hillary Clinton.  Duffy won reelection in 2016 and 2018 by similar margins. The general election is seen as Likely to Safe Republican.

It was an active Tuesday for Super Tuesday polling.  We saw polls from six states, including three of the four largest in terms of pledged delegates available that day. The polls in Virginia, Oklahoma, Maine and Vermont were the first we've seen this year.

There were also several national polls and one from New Jersey, which holds its primary in June.  You can view a running list of the most recent polls here.

Super Tuesday is two weeks from today, March 3. Over one-third of the Democratic Party's 3,979 pledged delegates will be up for grabs across 16 contests.