Earlier this week, Politico unveiled its 2020 Election Forecast, providing initial ratings for each state in the presidential election, as well as for next year's congressional elections and gubernatorial contests. The forecast detail includes a short note on each key/competitive race, as well as recent results in that state or district.
We've created interactive versions of the ratings; click or tap a map below to access.
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Editor's Note: 50 Mondays after today is November 2, 2020, the day before the presidential election. That gives us 50 weeks to review the 50 states.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. Leading off is Washington, D.C., the only non-state entity that casts electoral college votes in the United States presidential election.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. You can reach Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.
The quadrennial contest for Washington, D.C.’s three Electoral College votes is consistently the least competitive in the nation. The District's residents began casting votes for president in 1964 and no Republican nominee has ever won an electoral vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly 23 votes for each one cast for Donald Trump, winning by a 91% to 4% margin.
Before getting to the District’s outlook for 2020, let’s look at its history as our nation’s capital and why it has electoral votes at all.
Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has won a 2nd term in Louisiana.
As polls predicted, the election was very competitive, but Edwards is now projected to finish ahead of GOP businessman Eddie Rispone.
The runoff election for Louisiana governor takes place on Saturday, November 16. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Bel Edwards is seeking a 2nd term. He faces off against Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.
This is a very competitive race. Edwards has a one point lead in the Real Clear Politics average. That is consistent with the toss-up rating assigned by most forecasters. Sabato's Crystal Ball does see a small edge for the incumbent, and moved the race to Leans Democratic the other day. You can read their analysis of the race here.
Republican Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin has conceded the governor's race to his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Andy Beshear. Bevin, who trailed by about 5,000 votes in the Election Day count, had requested a recanvass of the vote. That was done Thursday, with a change of only one vote. Beshear will be sworn in on December 10.
We've updated the 2019-2020 consensus Governor Interactive Map to reflect the Kentucky result, as well as the GOP win in Mississippi.
Ten Democrats have qualified for the 5th Democratic debate, to be held on November 20 in Atlanta. The event will be hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post and broadcast live from 9:00 PM to 11:00 PM Eastern Time.
Those making the stage include former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; businessman Tom Steyer; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
Update: The candidates will appear in this order, from left to right on stage: Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Yang and Steyer.
Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's brief challenge to President Trump has ended. Sanford, who had announced his campaign for the GOP nomination in early September, said Tuesday that he was suspending that effort.
Sanford was averaging less than 2% in limited national polling. Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh remain in the race, but are also seeing little traction against an incumbent president who enjoys broad support within the Republican party.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is reportedly considering a late entry into the 2020 Democratic field. The news comes days after former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg filed to run in Alabama's March primary. Both individuals had previously decided against running in 2020, but both apparently see an opening despite the historically large number of candidates already in the race.
The filing deadline for New Hampshire's February 11 first-in-the-nation primary is this Friday. Given the proximity to his state, it would seem likely that Patrick would register for this contest if he is serious about jumping in to the race.
Rep. Peter King of New York announced he will not seek re-election in 2020. He is in his 14th term, representing the state's 2nd district, which covers parts of the south shore of Long Island. King is one of only two GOP representatives in downstate New York; Lee Zeldin's 1st district covers the remainder of Long island to the east.
In a statement posted to Facebook, King said he wanted to spend more time with his family. It is notable that his 2018 election win was by just 6 points; he had never previously won re-election by fewer than 12 points. The district voted for Donald Trump by 9 points in 2016, after preferring Barack Obama by 5 points in 2012. Given the loss of incumbency and the overall political climate, the district is expected to be more closely-contested in 2020. Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its rating from Likely to Leans Republican, with a hint that it could be a toss-up later on. We expect other forecasters to update their ratings earlier this week.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to file paperwork to qualify for the Alabama Democratic primary in advance of the state's Friday deadline. The filing doesn't mean he is going to jump into the race, but it is clearly under serious consideration.
Bloomberg's spokesman Howard Wolfson said "We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that". He went on to say that "If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist.”
