Election News

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

West Virginia

West Virginia’s Political U-Turn

West Virginia has undergone an astounding political reversal in the last two decades. The state began reliably voting Democratic in 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt picked it up as a part of his New Deal Coalition. Between 1932 and 2000, the state only voted Republican in the landslide elections of 1956, 1972, and 1984. George W. Bush’s victory in West Virginia in 2000 marked a turning point for the state. In each election since 2000, the Republican nominee has expanded on his predecessor’s margin of victory. This progression culminated in 2016 with Donald Trump’s 68% to 26% blowout over Hillary Clinton.

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said Monday that he is ending his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Bullock made the announcement on Facebook, linking to a longer statement on Medium. He said that "it has become clear that in this moment, I won’t be able to break through to the top tier of this still-crowded field of candidates."

Bullock is in his 2nd term as governor of Montana, a deep red state that voted for Donald Trump by a 58-33 margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. It has voted only twice for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1950. Bullock frequently used the talking point that he was the only Democrat in the field that won a Trump state. However, it wasn't enough to help him break out in this historically large field.  His national polling average was well under 1% at the time of withdrawal.

Former Rep. Joe Sestak has ended his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Sestak entered the race in June. He barely registered in polling and did not qualify for any of the party's debates.

Thank you for this opportunity! pic.twitter.com/mW5Qdi3bhT

— Joe Sestak (@JoeSestak) December 1, 2019

There are still 17 candidates vying for the nomination, 64 days before the February 3 Iowa caucuses. The party's final debate of the year will take place on December 19 in Los Angeles. 

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. You can reach Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz. 

Wyoming

The Strength and Weakness of Wyoming Voters

In presidential elections, Wyoming voters are electorally powerful but more-or-less ignored by the nominees. The state is the most over-represented in the Electoral College but has voted the same way for over half a century. 

Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg announced Sunday that he is running for president in 2020. 

I’m running for president to defeat Donald Trump and rebuild America.

I believe my unique set of experiences in business, government, and philanthropy will enable me to win and lead.

Join our team: https://t.co/7ezlUeouqH pic.twitter.com/IyOeS3aWaF

Read More

Earlier this week, Politico unveiled its 2020 Election Forecast, providing initial ratings for each state in the presidential election, as well as for next year's congressional elections and gubernatorial contests.  The forecast detail includes a short note on each key/competitive race, as well as recent results in that state or district. 

We've created interactive versions of the ratings; click or tap a map below to access.

President

Editor's Note:   50 Mondays after today is November 2, 2020, the day before the presidential election. That gives us 50 weeks to review the 50 states.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. Leading off is Washington, D.C., the only non-state entity that casts electoral college votes in the United States presidential election. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. You can reach Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz. 

Washington, D.C

The quadrennial contest for Washington, D.C.’s three Electoral College votes is consistently the least competitive in the nation. The District's residents began casting votes for president in 1964 and no Republican nominee has ever won an electoral vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly 23 votes for each one cast for Donald Trump, winning by a 91% to 4% margin.

Before getting to the District’s outlook for 2020, let’s look at its history as our nation’s capital and why it has electoral votes at all.

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has won a 2nd term in Louisiana. 

As polls predicted, the election was very competitive, but Edwards is now projected to finish ahead of GOP businessman Eddie Rispone.

The runoff election for Louisiana governor takes place on Saturday, November 16. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Bel Edwards is seeking a 2nd term. He faces off against Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.

This is a very competitive race. Edwards has a one point lead in the Real Clear Politics average. That is consistent with the toss-up rating assigned by most forecasters. Sabato's Crystal Ball does see a small edge for the incumbent, and moved the race to Leans Democratic the other day. You can read their analysis of the race here.

Republican Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin has conceded the governor's race to his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Andy Beshear. Bevin, who trailed by about 5,000 votes in the Election Day count, had requested a recanvass of the vote. That was done Thursday, with a change of only one vote. Beshear will be sworn in on December 10.

We've updated the 2019-2020 consensus Governor Interactive Map to reflect the Kentucky result, as well as the GOP win in Mississippi.