Election News

Another Republican House member is calling it quits in 2020.  Michael Conaway, the eight-term representative of Texas's 11th district is not seeking another term.

NEWS ... Texas GOP Rep. Mike Conaway is retiring after 15 years in Congress. This is the fifth retirement in two weeks.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 31, 2019

Conaway is the 4th GOP retirement in the past week. His west-central Texas district is very conservative - Donald Trump won by nearly 60 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and the district is likely to remain in Republican hands in the 2020 election.

12 current House members have decided to retire or run for another office in 2020. Click or tap the map below for details.

111 members of the House of Representatives now support an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump. The list has grown by at least 15 since the testimony of special counsel Robert Mueller last Wednesday.

The latest to call for an inquiry are Reps. Grace Meng (NY-6) and Jennifer Wexton (VA-10). The list includes 110 Democrats and independent Justin Amash (MI-3), who left the GOP earlier this summer. 

Click or tap the map below for the current list of those supporting impeachment.

For the third consecutive day, a GOP member of the U.S. House has announced they will not seek reelection in 2020. Today's decision by Alabama Rep. Martha Roby follows those by Rep. Pete Olson (TX-22) and Rep. Paul Mitchell (MI-10).  Roby is also the 2nd - of 13 total - Republican woman in the House to retire this cycle. Susan Brooks (IN-5) made her announcement in June.

Roby represents Alabama's 2nd congressional district which covers much of the Montgomery area and the southeastern portion of the state. She won a 5th term in 2018 by 23%, improving on a narrow 8% win in 2016. In October of that year, she withdrew her endorsement for Donald Trump after publication of the Access Hollywood video.  That didn't play so well in her district, which the president won by 32% over Hillary Clinton.  Roby became more supportive after the election, and gained Trump's endorsement for her 2018 reelection campaign.

Despite a departing incumbent, the seat is still considered safe for the GOP in 2020.

Rep. Pete Olson of Texas said Thursday that he will not run for reelection in 2020.  The announcement comes one day after a similar one by fellow GOP Rep. Paul Mitchell of Michigan.

Texas's 22nd district is largely suburban, and encompasses much of the southern portion of the Houston metropolitan area. After Olson narrowly won reelection in 2018, this was already expected to be a competitive district in 2020. The absence of an incumbent will make it more so.  Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its rating from 'Leans Republican' to 'Toss-up'.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democratic field in Ohio, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.  Biden also leads President Trump in the general election, with other match-ups essentially even. 

Democratic Primary

Quinnipiac finds Biden well out in front with 31% support.  Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are all bunched at 13-14%, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receiving 6% of the vote. Nobody else received more than 1%. If this poll were to be exactly right (it won't be¹), and if all the delegates were allocated based on the statewide vote (they aren't²), Biden would receive all of the states' 136 pledged delegates.  However, it is an interesting example of how Democratic proportional allocation can become winner-take-all when only one candidate reaches the 15% threshold.

Michigan Rep. Paul Mitchell will retire at the end of this term. The announcement comes less than 10 days after the 2nd term Republican criticized President Trump over his 'go back' comments.

.@RealDonaldTrump, we must be better than comments like these. I share the political frustrations with some members of the other party, but these comments are beneath leaders. https://t.co/4b8e5hlSZI

— Rep. Paul Mitchell (@RepPaulMitchell) July 15, 2019

Mitchell represents the state's 10th district, a conservative, mostly rural area north of metro Detroit.  Donald Trump won here by 32% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, his largest margin of victory in a state that provided the closest statewide result in that election. Trump won Michigan by just 0.23%.

Mitchell is the 9th* current House member to announce they will not run for reelection in 2020. Select the map below for more information.  

The Democratic National Committee has named the 20 candidates that have qualified for the next debate. The only change is that Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will replace Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, who left the race earlier this month.

As with the first debate in June, this one will be held over two nights, July 30 and 31. It will take place in Detroit and be hosted by CNN. That network will conduct a random drawing Thursday at 8:00 PM, to be broadcast live.  No announcement has yet been made about whether the candidates will be divided into smaller groups, with a random drawing within each group. This was done in the June debate, with candidates first split into those polling over/under 2%.

The latest Change Research poll of California shows a lot of movement from their prior survey in late May. Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are separated by just three points, essentially tied given the poll's margin of error.  Harris and Warren gained 8 and 10 points, respectively, from the prior poll. Sanders had a small decline in support.

The big loser in this poll is Joe Biden. The former vice president saw his support fall from 30% to 17%. He finds himself in 4th place. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg fell from 12% to 8% and remains in 5th place.

The Golden State has the nation's largest allocation of Democratic pledged delegates, currently estimated at 416. Based on this poll, at least the top four finishers would qualify* for delegates, having reached the required 15% threshold.  

A Republican primary runoff is being held in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district on Tuesday, July 9. Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time, with results available here after that.  Reload the page for the latest:

NC-3 has been vacant since the death of GOP Rep. Walter Jones in February. In the party primaries in April, no Republican exceeded 30%, necessitating today's runoff. The top two finishers that advanced are physicians Joan Perry and Greg Murphy, who is also a state representative. Perry has received extensive support from Republican women, hoping to increase their numbers in Congress. All 13 current House GOP women have endorsed Perry.

Activist Tom Steyer joined the crowded 2020 Democratic field Tuesday. His campaign indicated it would spend at least $100 million on the race, starting with TV ads in several early primary/caucus states.

The decision marks a reversal of Steyer's announcement in January that he would not seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. At the time, he said that he would continue his activism around the impeachment of President Trump.