Election News

The Trump reelection effort will look to expand the electoral map in 2020, campaign manager Brad Parscale said on CBS Face the Nation Sunday.

===

From the transcript, with bold and 2016 margin added:

Former Vice President Joe Biden made his long-expected entry into the 2020 presidential race Thursday. Biden announced his campaign via a launch video that sought to draw a sharp contrast with President Trump.

Biden brings to 20 the number of notable Democrats in the 2020 field.  Prior to his announcement, he was the easily the most well-known name reported to be considering a run. While a few others have yet to make their plans known, the field is likely nearing completion, with the first debate* scheduled in just two months. 

A pledged delegate view has been added to the 2020 Democratic Primary map.  This shows the number of pledged delegates each location will allocate in its 2020 primary or caucus.  The total delegate view remains available, and includes 764 superdelegates. The distinction is important, as only pledged delegates will cast votes* in the first ballot at the nominating convention in Milwaukee next July. 

It will take a majority of pledged delegates - at least 1,885 of 3,768 - to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. If subsequent ballots are needed, 2,267 of 4,532 total delegates puts a candidate over 50%. All delegates become unpledged after the first ballot. Note that these 'magic numbers' will increase later this year as the party awards bonus pledged delegates to locations meeting certain criteria. We'll have a better idea on these once each location sets its contest date, but a rough estimate is that there will be 150-200 bonus delegates.

Bernie Sanders continues to lead all candidates in the latest Granite State Poll of Democrats for the New Hampshire Primary. The Senator from neighboring Vermont gets 30% support.  Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg are statistically tied in 2nd; The three-point margin for Biden is well within the margin of error.  No other candidate received more than 5% support.

Buttigieg, who barely registered in the prior Granite State Poll seven weeks ago, saw his support rise to 15% in the latest survey. Sanders lead grew from 4% go 12% over Biden, as the two moved in opposite directions. Sanders gained 4 points, while Biden lost the same. The big loser was Sen. Kamala Harris, who fell from 10% to 4%.

For the two most well-known names, this poll is a bit at odds with one released a couple weeks back from St. Anselm College. That survey gave Biden a 23% to 16% lead over Sanders. The chart below shows those averaging over 3% in these two polls; select the image for full results.

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton said Monday that he is entering the 2020 presidential race. His announcement video highlighted his military service and the country's economic anxiety.

Moulton is the 20th notable candidate in the historically large 2020 Democratic field. The list includes fellow Reps. Tulsi Gabbard (HI-02), Tim Ryan (OH-13) and Eric Swalwell (CA-15), as well as Moulton's former House colleagues John Delaney and Beto O'Rourke.  Of these, only O'Rourke has gotten significant traction to this point. The launch comes just days ahead of the expected entry of former vice-president Joe Biden. 

The biggest open question related to the 2020 Democratic field is likely to be answered next week. Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to announce he is running for president.  

This will be Biden's third try for the presidency. His 1988 run was over by the autumn of 1987, falling victim to a scandal around plagiarism. In 2008, he placed fifth in the Iowa caucuses and immediately withdrew from the race. He would go on to be Barack Obama's running mate that year, serving two terms as vice president. He passed on a 2016 run after delaying his decision by several months following the death of his son, Beau.

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe said Wednesday he will not seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. McAuliffe would have faced a long shot bid given his appeal overlaps with those likely to support Joe Biden. The former vice president may officially join the race as soon as next week.

19 candidates have thus far announced their intention to run for president. Decisions are pending by six more, the most notable of which is the aforementioned Biden. Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts is also likely to announce that he is running in the days ahead.

Here's the latest list of announced and prospective Democratic presidential candidates. it is sorted by the current national polling average.  Keep in mind that polling at this point is largely driven by name recognition. 

Former Massachusetts governor - and 2016 Libertarian vice presidential nominee - Bill Weld will seek the 2020 Republican nomination. He becomes the first official challenger to President Trump. 

Weld had previously announced he was exploring a challenge to the incumbent president. As we noted at the time, "the history of serious incumbent primary challenges in the modern era is not a good one - either for the challenger or the sitting president. A strong primary challenge highlights fractures in a party, and often weakens the incumbent in the general election. We saw this most recently in 1992, where George H.W. Bush fended off Pat Buchanan, but lost the general election to Bill Clinton. Interestingly, that situation is somewhat the mirror of today. Trump represents the now-ascendant populist wing of the party, while someone like Weld would potentially appeal to the type of GOP championed by the Bushes."

Recap of some polls that were released this week.

Iowa: The state kicks off the 2020 vote with its caucus on February 3. A Monmouth University Poll showed former vice-president Joe Biden in front with 27%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 16% and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%.

In its latest weekly survey of registered Democrats nationwide, Morning Consult finds former vice-president Joe Biden with 32% support. This is 9 points over the 23% received by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. No other prospective nominee broke into double digits. 

Biden's undeclared candidacy hit its first rough spot when former Nevada assemblywoman Lucy Flores made the initial allegations of unwanted touching against him in an article published March 29. Several other women have subsequently come forward, with Biden's response thus far not seeming to diffuse the situation.

However, the controversy doesn't seem to have had a notable impact on Biden's standing among Democratic primary voters. In Morning Consult's March 26 survey - a few days before the story broke - Biden had 35% support. His current 32% is right in the middle of the 29-35% range he has received in each Morning Consult survey since early February.