Election News

The newest member of the U.S. Senate, Democrat Laphonza Butler of California, said Thursday that she will not run for a full term in 2024. Butler was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom earlier this month, following the death of longtime Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

“I have spent my life working for working men and women whether I was fighting to win more pay for their labor, strengthen their communities or help them get elected. I’ve always believed elected leaders should have real clarity about why they’re in office and what they want to..

— Laphonza Butler (@LaphonzaB) October 19, 2023

A crowded field will compete in the state's all-party primary on March 5. The three Democratic frontrunners, who have been in the race for months, are U.S. Reps. Barbara Lee (CA-12), Katie Porter (CA-47), and Adam Schiff (CA-30).  Republicans gained a prominent name last week, when former major league baseball player Steve Garvey announced he would run.

The top two finishers in the primary - regardless of party - will advance to the November general election.

Note that because of the timing of Butler's appointment, California law requires a special election to complete Feinstein's term. The dates will be the same: March 5 for the primary, November 5 for the general, but it will be a separate election on the ballot. The winner of that special election will serve for the last few weeks of the 118th congress.

Rep. Debbie Lesko of Arizona said Tuesday that she will not seek reelection in 2024.  

A statement from Congresswoman Debbie Lesko ?? pic.twitter.com/ziBheGVDbz

— Debbie Lesko (@DebbieLesko) October 17, 2023

Lesko joined the House in 2018, winning a special election to fill the vacancy created when Trent Franks (R) resigned. She won reelection that year and in 2020, and was unopposed in 2022. 

Arizona's 8th congressional district includes northern portions of the Phoenix metropolitan area.

State Attorney General Jeff Landry was elected governor of Louisiana on Saturday. Landry secured a majority of the vote in the primary, avoiding a general election runoff. 

He will succeed Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who was ineligible to run for a third consecutive term due to term limit laws.

While Landry was favored to be the state's next governor, he had to overcome some daunting math to do it in the first round. There were 14 other candidates, including seven Republicans, on the ballot. 

Louisiana holds its majority vote primary Saturday. This hybrid system is unique, although some other states use a similar approach for special elections. All candidates for a seat appear together on a single ballot. If one gets a majority of the vote, they are elected. Otherwise, the top two advance to a general election runoff.

The runoff elections, as needed, will take place on Saturday, November 18.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

This Tuesday, we're following two State Senate special primaries as well as a primary for the mayor of Durham, North Carolina.

Next up is Saturday's Louisiana majority vote primary, headlined by the gubernatorial election. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is ineligible to run due to term limits. Check back later in the week for an overview and live results.

Mayoral Primary

Durham, North Carolina

*_{Population rank is based on the July 1, 2022 Census Bureau estimates. It is based on the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.}

Mayors in Durham serve two-year terms. Incumbent Elaine O'Neal is not seeking reelection. There are eight candidates on the nonpartisan primary ballot looking to succeed her. The top two will advance to the general election on November 7.

Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.

Former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas ended his presidential campaign Monday, throwing support behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Monday that he will run as an independent candidate for president in 2024. The environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic will abandon his long-shot challenge for the Democratic nomination.

Join Me For A Historic Announcement https://t.co/O8a3TDaPus

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) October 9, 2023

Kennedy had been averaging just under 14% support in recent national Democratic polls. It is unclear how much of that reflected actual interest in his candidacy among Democratic primary voters vs. a lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden.

Other polls have shown him even more popular with Republicans. We should start seeing more general election polling of a Biden-Trump-Kennedy ballot in the weeks ahead, providing  a better gauge of Kennedy's current overall support.

And there may be other challenges to the major party frontrunners. Last week, progressive academic Cornel West also said he would run as an independent, after previously seeking the Green Party's nomination. The group No Labels has also raised millions, and has gained ballot access in at least 10 states, to possibly run a candidate next year.  

Residents of Memphis, Tennessee will elect a new mayor on Thursday.  Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Mayoral Election 

Memphis

*_{Population rank is based on the July 1, 2022 Census Bureau estimates. It is based on the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.}

Democratic Mayor Jim Strickland is ineligible to run for a third term.  There are 17 candidates running to replace him in what is officially a nonpartisan election.

Thursday's first place finisher will be elected, despite the fact that they are likely to have nowhere near majority support. As Bolts magazine reports, "Memphis is by far the most populous city in the nation to elect its mayor this way, in a one-round, first-past-the-post election. There is no primary, no runoff, no ranked-choice voting to cull the herd, encourage consolidation, or help clarify the stakes. All other U.S. cities with at least half a million residents have some such mechanism to ensure that the field narrows, or that the winner gets broader support."

According to NCSL, 19 states plus the District of Columbia permit the recall of state legislators. Their research shows that there have been 39 such actual recall elections in U.S. History, with the recall successful about 55% of the time. The last such recall election was in 2018, when California State Sen. Josh Newman (D) was removed from office.^{1 1}Newman successfully won the seat back in the 2020 election. He has since advocated for a constitutional amendment to modify the recall process in that state.

Tuesday will bring the 40th such recall election. It will be the 4th to take place in Oregon. The most recent there was in 1988.

Oregon State House District 8

Wasting little time given the narrow Democratic majority, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has appointed Laphonza Butler as the state's newest U.S. Senator. She will succeed Dianne Feinstein, who died late last week.

I'm proud to announce California's new United States Senator -- Laphonza Butler.

As we mourn the enormous loss of Sen. Feinstein, the very freedoms she fought for -- reproductive freedom, equal protection, and safety from gun violence -- have never been under greater assault.… pic.twitter.com/SOnbfVPmXj

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) October 2, 2023

Butler is the president of EMILY's List, which works to elect Democratic pro-choice women to office. Prior to that, she was an advisor to Kamala Harris's 2020 presidential campaign.

2024 California Senate Elections

Feinstein had served in the Senate since 1992. Earlier this year, she announced she would not seek reelection in 2024. This set in motion what is likely to be the most expensive congressional race in 2024, despite the seat being safely Democratic.