Election News

On Election Day, there were 17 mayoral elections across the nation's 100 largest cities.^{1 1}Population rankings are based on July 1, 2021 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.In Laredo, the smallest of those cities, no candidate received a majority of the vote, requiring this runoff.

A ten-person field competed in the nonpartisan (NPA) November 8 election, with four candidates receiving over 15% support. The top two finishers were Mercurio Martinez (22% of the vote) and Victor Trevino (21%). They were separated by just over 300 votes. Martinez is a former City Councilmember, while Trevino was previously the top doctor at the city's health authority.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

On Election Day, there were 17 mayoral elections across the nation's 100 largest cities^{1 1}Population rankings are based on July 1, 2021 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area., including three in Texas. In two of those - Austin and Laredo - no candidate received a majority of the vote, requiring a top two runoff election.

The Austin runoff is today; Laredo follows on Saturday. Both elections are officially nonpartisan, although we do note party affiliations where known. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Austin

State Rep. Celia Israel (42% of the vote) and former State Sen. Kirk Watson (36%) advanced from the five-candidate field. Both are Democrats; Watson previously served as the city's mayor from 1997 to 2001.

Affordable housing seems to be the driving issue in this race. 

On Monday, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) set February 21 for a special election in the state's 4th congressional district. The seat has been vacant since Democrat Donald McEachin died late last month.

This Richmond area seat is safely Democratic; McEachin had won reelection by 65% to 35% just weeks before his death. The party will choose its nominee in a firehouse primary next Tuesday, December 20.

Freshman Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is leaving the Democratic Party to register as an independent. She explained the reasoning behind her decision in an opinion piece for The Arizona Republic.

In an interview, Sinema told Politico that "she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate."

Tuesday's Georgia runoff election will determine if the Senate remains evenly divided, or whether Democrats hold a 51-49 edge. While Democrats will retain control in the new Congress regardless of the outcome, there are significant organizational advantages associated with winning a true majority.

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. 

== Updated December 5 for new polls and final early voting totals. ==

These polls are associated with the Georgia Senate runoff election on December 6, 2022. The runoff was necessitated when no candidate received 50% in the November 8, 2022 general election.

While the polling has largely been within the margin of error, it has been consistent with a small lead for Warnock.

Indiana Sen. Mike Braun has filed paperwork to run for governor in 2024. Braun will be looking to succeed fellow Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb, who is ineligible to run for a third consecutive term.

An official announcement of Braun's candidacy is expected soon, per the Senator's Chief of Staff.  Should that happen, a crowded Senate GOP primary field may evolve. 

Indiana is one of just 10 GOP-held seats up in 2024. Democrats will be defending 21 seats. Two seats held by Senate independents that caucus with the Democrats are also on the ballot.

Rep. Donald McEachin died Monday, following a long battle with cancer. He was 61. The Virginia Democrat had been reelected for a fourth term earlier this month.

pic.twitter.com/ev2jRb5Gwr

— Rep. Donald McEachin (@RepMcEachin) November 29, 2022

Virginia District 4 includes the state capital, Richmond. It is a safely Democratic district. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will set a special election to fill the vacancy.

If there are no further changes, the partisan composition of the House for the final month of this Congress will be 219 Democrats and 213 Republicans, along with three vacancies. The open seats were all previously held by Democrats. The other two are in Florida, where Reps. Charlie Crist (FL-13) and Ted Deutch (FL-22) resigned earlier this year. 

Republicans will take control of the House January 3 - five weeks from today - having won at least 220 seats in the midterm elections. The most likely final outcome is a 222-213 GOP margin, an exact mirror of the Democratic 222-213 edge after the 2020 election.

On Wednesday, the Alaska Division of Elections will conduct the ranked choice tabulation to determine the winner of its U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. This process takes place where no candidate gets a majority of the first choice general election votes.

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is currently just over 50%; he is likely to win outright once the final vote is certified.

Watch the tabulation livestream here at 4:00 PM Alaska Time (8:00 PM Eastern).

U.S. House

Republicans clinched the House earlier this week and will enjoy a narrow majority when the new Congress is seated in January. Currently, the party has won 219 seats, while Democrats have won 212. The Democratic total includes California 34, where one of two Democrats on the ballot will prevail.

Four seats remain uncalled. Of those, Democrats are expected to win Alaska's At-Large District, while Republicans are almost certain to win Colorado 3. That will bring the tally to 220-213. The remaining two Districts, California 13 and California 22, could break either way.

Colorado District 3