Freshman Republican Ross Spano was defeated in his bid for renomination Tuesday. Spano, who has been under investigation for campaign finance violations, lost to Lakeland Commissioner Scott Franklin.
In the general election, Franklin will face off against former investigative journalist Alan Cohn, who won the Democratic nomination. The consensus rating for this district, which sits between Tampa and Orlando is 'Leans Republican'. Spano won his seat by six points in 2018.
Three states hold primaries Tuesday. Overview and live results for some of the more interesting races is below, along with a link to all contested congressional primaries in each state.
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
| 7:00 PM | Florida (ET) |
| 8:00 PM | Florida (CT) |
| 9:00 PM | Wyoming |
| 12:00 AM | Alaska (AT) |
| 1:00 AM | Alaska (HT) |
In Florida, all but congressional districts 1 and 2 in the state's Panhandle are in the Eastern Time Zone. (AT) is Alaska Time, (HT) is Hawaii-Aleutian Time.
| Alaska | Florida | Wyoming |
Senate: Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking a 2nd term; he has no primary opposition. The likely Democratic nominee is actually an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross. In Alaska, non-Democrats are allowed to compete for the party's nomination.
Sullivan is favored in the general election - most forecasters have the race as 'likely Republican'. However, Gross has been competitive in fundraising and trailed Sullivan by only five points in an early July poll.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
We've added an electoral map that is derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast that was released earlier this week. The map will update every two hours, reflecting the then-current probabilities for each state. The current map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
Update (August 19): Since most saved maps have a limited number of toss-ups, we've expanded the State View to allow for the adjustment of districts that have been set to Leans Democratic or Republican. This will provide more flexibility for what-if scenarios across the range of the more competitive districts.
The text below has been adjusted to reflect this change.
===
Four states hold primaries Tuesday. In addition, there are some primary runoffs in Georgia. Overview and live results for some of the more interesting races are below, along with a link to all contested congressional and/or gubernatorial primaries in each state.
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
| 7:00 PM | Georgia, Vermont |
| 8:00 PM | Connecticut |
| 9:00 PM | Minnesota, Wisconsin |
| Connecticut | Minnesota | Vermont | Wisconsin | Georgia (runoff) |
President: Just one week before the Democratic convention, the much-delayed presidential primary calendar concludes. Although both nominations have long been decided, there is a 'contested' primary in both parties.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
The vote by mail Hawaii primary is Saturday. Live results for the contested primaries in the state's two congressional districts will be available after 1:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.
There's not a lot of suspense here in terms of the general election. Both districts in this deep blue state were won by a margin of over 50% in 2018. They are both safely Democratic this November.
The one primary to watch is for the Democratic nomination in District 2. Incumbent Tulsi Gabbard did not pursue a 5th term in an unsuccessful effort to win the party's presidential nomination.
Inside Elections updated their 2020 House outlook on Friday. The forecaster moved the ratings of 29 seats, 27 of them favoring Democrats. From their analysis:
"Not only is the majority all-but-completely out of reach for this fall as initial GOP takeover targets are dropping completely off the list of competitive races, but dozens of Republican incumbents previously regarded as safe for re-election are vulnerable as Trump underperforms his 2016 totals by 8-10 points or more around the country. It’s certainly possible that a House candidate overperforms the top of the ticket. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that presidential results and House results match up at least 90 percent of the time."
Here's the updated Inside Elections map. Click/tap for an interactive version. A tweet listing all the changes follows the map.
Tennessee is the only state in the country to have a Thursday downballot primary. That day of the week is specified in the state's original constitution and has never been modified.
All polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
