The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Former Vice-President Joe Biden clinched the Democratic nomination on Friday, having locked up the necessary delegates per the latest tabulation of The Associated Press. As of Saturday morning, Biden has won 1,995 delegates, four more than the 1,991 needed to win on the first ballot.
Biden has been the presumptive nominee since early April, when Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders exited the race in the midst of a pandemic that had essentially frozen the presidential race in place.
Joe Biden, the presumptive nominee for nearly two months, is just 35 pledged delegates away from the 1,991 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. This is based on the latest count of the Associated Press. Biden has thus far claimed 390 delegates from Tuesday's primaries, with Bernie Sanders earning 33. There are 56 delegates still to be awarded.
If Biden comes up a bit short after this week's primaries, he will almost certainly cross the threshold just after Georgia polls close next Tuesday.
Nine-term incumbent Rep. Steve King was defeated Tuesday in the GOP primary for Iowa's 4th congressional district. King, more-or-less abandoned by the party after a long history of controversial comments, was defeated by state Senator Randy Feenstra.
While Democrats are undoubtedly happy to see King go, his loss effectively takes the district out of play for November. Democrat J.D. Scholten - renominated on Tuesday - held King to a three point win in 2018. However, Donald Trump won this conservative district by 27% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Feenstra will likely be its next member of Congress.
Most pundits updated their rating to Safe Republican, and that is also reflected on the Consensus 2020 House Map.
Rescheduled primaries have led to June 2 being one of the busier days on the 2020 calendar. Seven states and the District of Columbia will hold presidential primaries. Six of those states will also hold downballot primaries, as will Idaho and Iowa. Those latter two states held their presidential primaries earlier this year.
Polls Close (Eastern Time)
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this to determine when to vote. Total Democratic pledged delegates by closing time* are displayed
6:00 PM
0
Indiana+ (ET)
7:00 PM
82
Indiana+ (CT) (82)
8:00 PM
328
District of Columbia (20), Maryland (96), Pennsylvania (186), Rhode Island (26), South Dakota+ (CT)
9:00 PM
50
New Mexico (34) South Dakota+ (MT) (16)
10:00 PM
19
Idaho^ (MT), Iowa, Montana (19)
11:00 PM
0
Idaho^ (PT)
*For states holding presidential primaries today. +Indiana polls close 6:00 PM local time; South Dakota is 7:00 PM local time. Delegate count is listed with the later ET closing. ^Ballots not yet mailed can be returned to a drop box before 8:00 PM local time.
Democratic Delegate Count
Heading into June 2, presumptive nominee Joe Biden is 425 delegates short of the 1,991 he needs to clinch the Democratic nomination. 479 delegates are available Tuesday. While it is mathematically possible for Biden to get there, he'll need to hold Bernie Sanders below 15% in almost all the jurisdictions (states and individual congressional districts) distributing delegates today. If he doesn't make it Tuesday, he'll almost certainly cross the threshold with primaries next week11If Biden is very close to 1,991 after Tuesday, the next opportunity will come with the Virgin Islands caucus this Saturday. Seven delegates are available. in Georgia and West Virginia.
A late caveat: Pennsylvania governor Tom Wolf issued an executive order on June 1 extending the deadline for some ballots returned by mail to be received and counted. It applies only to six of the state's 67 counties, but those counties include Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Since the ballots must be postmarked by June 2, we may still see some presidential vote counts Tuesday, and perhaps a projected winner. However, it is unclear how many delegates will be projected before the June 9 deadline. As the state has nearly 40% of the 479 delegates available, this change may remove the possibility of Biden reaching 1,991 before next Tuesday.
The Democratic presidential primary results as well as results for other races we're watching closely are on this page, broken out by state. There are links to the full results for each state, including - as applicable - presidential, congressional and gubernatorial primaries.
Idaho
Idaho held its presidential primary on March 10.
June 2 is the extended deadline to receive ballots for a primary that has been conducted entirely by mail.
Senate/House: While there are a couple congressional primaries, the U.S. Senate seat held by Jim Risch as well as both congressional districts are seen as safely Republican this November.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Hawaii Democrats released results Saturday for the state's party-run primary. Joe Biden finished first with 63% of the vote, winning 16 of the 24 pledged delegates. Bernie Sanders received 37% of the vote, winning the other 8 delegates. Note that voting in this primary began before Sanders withdrew from the race on April 8.
The primary, originally scheduled for April 4, was changed to be run exclusively by mail in response to the pandemic. Ballots were due back by May 22.
On Friday, Inside Elections updated its House ratings for the November elections, shifting 15 races. Changes were made to eight competitive races, with seven more moving to safe, taking them out of play - per this forecaster - for November.
In response to many requests, we've created a map that will track the electoral vote based exclusively on polling averages. While good as a benchmark, keep in mind that polling this far from the election may ultimately prove to be of limited predictive value.
If the difference between Biden and Trump is less than 5%, these will display as toss-ups. States are shown as leaning toward a candidate if the margin is 5 to 9.99%. Likely is 10 to 14.99%, with states shown as safe where the margin is 15% or more.
Where polling is not yet available, we are using the actual margin between Clinton and Trump in 2016.
