Oregon holds its regularly-scheduled primary elections Tuesday. With a long history of mail-in voting, the state was not forced to change the date due to the pandemic. Ballots can be returned by mail or dropped off at official drop boxes across the state. In either case, ballots must be received by 8:00 PM local time.11The entire state, except for a portion of Malheur County in the southeast corner of the state, is in the Pacific Time Zone. Live results will appear below after 11:00 PM Eastern Time.
President (Democratic): Firmly entrenched as the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden won all 29 delegates in last week's Nebraska primary. Notable in that it was the first time this year it has happened. Heading into Tuesday, Biden has 1,464 of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination. 61 additional delegates are available in Oregon.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate.
Amash, who left the Republican Party last summer to become an independent, announced in late April that he was forming an exploratory committee to seek the presidency. He officially joined the Libertarian Party, becoming its first U.S. House member. He was expected to seek the party's nomination at its convention later this month.
As Michigan law precludes running for both president and congress, Amash said at the time he would not seek reelection to his House seat. It is not clear if his position on that will shift with today's announcement.
Cook Political updated its 2020 Senate ratings Friday, moving Georgia - the seat held by David Perdue (R) - from Likely to Leans Republican. This aligns it with the special election being held for Georgia's other Senate seat, as well as the forecaster's rating for Georgia in the Electoral College.
Republican Mike Garcia has won the special election in California's 25th congressional district. His opponent, Democrat Christy Smith conceded Wednesday afternoon, citing Garcia's lead in the vote counted thus far.
As expected, most of Tuesday's elections were decided pretty quickly. Among the more notable races:
Republican Tom Tiffany prevailed in the Wisconsin 7th district special election; keeping that seat in GOP hands
Kara Eastman easily won the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's 2nd district; setting up a rematch of 2018 against incumbent Republican Don Bacon
Joe Biden received over 77% of the vote in Nebraska's Democratic presidential primary, winning at least 27 of the 29 available delegates
California District 25 Special Election
The one race that remains undecided is the special election to fill the vacancy in California's 25th district. Republican Mike Garcia has a lead of 56%-44% in the votes that have been counted thus far. While Garcia seems more likely to win here than not, no winner has yet been declared. The vast majority of ballots in this race were cast by mail, and many remain to be processed.
If Garcia does win, it will be the first GOP pickup of a Democratic-held U.S. House seat in the state since 1998.
Two congressional vacancies will be filled via special election Tuesday. In addition, Nebraska is holding its scheduled primary election. Follow live results below, beginning at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, after polls close in Nebraska and Wisconsin.
California District 25
The more competitive of today's two special elections will be for this Los Angeles-area seat that has been vacant since former Rep. Katie Hill (D) resigned last year. Hill had been serving in her first term, after defeating incumbent Republican Steve Knight in the 2018 midterms. It was one of seven GOP-held seats in the state that Democrats flipped that year on their way to taking control of the House.
Knight's attempt at regaining the seat he held for two terms was unsuccessful as he finished third in the top two primary.11If a candidate had received a majority of the vote in the primary, that person would have been elected. Democrat Christy Smith, a member of the State Assembly, finished first with 36% of the vote. Republican Mike Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, was second with 24%. Across the large 12-person field, however, the vote was pretty evenly split between the two parties. Most analysts see the race as a toss-up.
Regardless of the outcome of today's election, both Smith and Garcia will be on the ballot again in November, vying for a full two-year term. Turnout may be the ultimate driver in both cases. A standalone special election often yields lower turnout, in which case the most reliable voters - older, white Republicans - may make the difference. However, in November, a much higher Democratic turnout associated with the presidential election is expected. Of course, nobody really knows how this will play out in an election conducted during the pandemic. The vast majority of ballots are expected to be cast by mail, with some in-person polling places open.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Sabato's Crystal ball has made three changes to its gubernatorial ratings, all favoring the incumbent. These moves leave Montana as the only highly-competitive race among the eleven governorships up for election in 2020.
In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper is favored to win a second term; that rating moves from Leans to Likely Democratic. Meanwhile, incumbents Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Phil Scott in neighboring Vermont each look likely to win a third term - those go from Leans to Likely Republican. Those two New England states are the only ones where terms are two years instead of four.
In Montana, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is termed out; his entry into the U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Steve Daines has made that race much competitive. The gubernatorial race is still taking shape; both parties have competitive primaries on June 2 and the general election is seen as a toss-up. It is a little surprising that these statewide races are so competitive in a year where President Trump is expected to easily win the state's three electoral votes. Drew Savicki will discuss Montana politics in the next Road to 270 installment on Monday.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
