Election News

Tennessee is the only state in the country to have a Thursday downballot primary. That day of the week is specified in the state's original constitution and has never been modified.  

All polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.  

All Tennessee Results >>

Five states held their primaries on Tuesday. Click or tap to view full live results by state:

Kansas Republicans solidify general election prospects:  Rep. Roger Marshall defeated former Secretary of State Kris Kobach to win the GOP Senate nomination, while in District 2, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner ousted incumbent Rep. Steve Watkins. In both cases, voters chose the candidate favored by party leaders and who likely had the best general election prospects. 

Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. While the race isn't completely off the competitive radar - Democratic nominee State Sen. Barbara Bollier is a credible nominee - the controversial Kobach would have been a tougher sell to the full electorate. The same could be said of Watkins, who was recently charged with multiple felonies. Cook Political moved this Topeka-area district from Leans to Likely Republican.

After a two week break, the primary calendar picks up again Tuesday.  Five states hold congressional primaries; two of those also will finalize their nominees for governor. All eyes will be on the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Kansas. (View Live Results) The choice party voters make may well impact how competitive the November general election is - and, in turn, may be the deciding factor in which party controls the Senate in 2021.

There are a number of other races of interest.  See below for more information on those, as well as links to all the results for each state.

Looking ahead, Tennessee follows with primaries on Thursday. As in Kansas, Republican voters there will also choose a nominee to replace a retiring Senator. That winner will be heavily favored in November. On Saturday, there are a few congressional primaries in Hawaii. Next Tuesday, four states are on the calendar, including the final presidential primary in Connecticut.   

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator.  This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).

Bellwether:  Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.

Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

The Cook Political Report has updated its electoral college outlook, making for changes. The most significant of these has Florida moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. 

Read Amy Walter's analysis of Florida >>

In addition, Indiana, Kansas and Missouri were reclassified from Safe to Likely Republican. 

The Cook Political Report has made five changes to its 2020 Senate forecast.  Read the full analysis here.

• Arizona moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic
• Georgia (regular) and Iowa move from Leans Republican to Toss-up
• Minnesota and New Mexico move from Likely to Safe Democratic

The updated map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.

Axios reports that "Doug Sosnik, who was the White House political director during President Clinton's successful re-election race, is out with one of his famous political decks, six weeks out from the start of early voting for president."

Presentation: The Coronavirus Election 

In the accompanying narrative, Sosnik says, in part,

"Trump changed our politics, but the coronavirus changed our country. Both of these accelerated a new era in American politics. 2020 is not 2016.

In an effort to explain away his abysmal poll numbers, Trump makes the case that today he is in the same position that he was in at this time in 2016, and he still won. The problem with that argument is that it’s a complete misreading of the 2020 election. In 2016, voters faced a choice between two candidates. In a re-election campaign, voters will see it as a referendum on Trump’s presidency – one that will long be remembered as the coronavirus election. At some level Trump grasps that the election is about him, but he mistakenly concludes that he’s an asset, not a liability.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.