Election News

Democrat Andy Kim will win in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district. The election was called Wednesday afternoon by our results partner Decision Desk HQ, as well as by the Associated Press. This is the 230th seat won by Democrats, a net gain of 35. Six races remain uncalled.

In our pre-election New Jersey House overview, we noted that "If Democrats have a particularly good night, 19 term Rep. Christopher Smith (NJ-4) may be the only Republican in the New Jersey House delegation in 2019."  With Kim's victory, that will indeed be the case. 

Democrat Josh Harder is the projected winner in California's 10th congressional district. He defeated four-term incumbent Republican Jeff Denham. This marks the 34th net gain for Democrats in the House midterm elections, giving them 229 seats.  Republicans currently have 199, with 7 seats remaining to be decided.

This is the fourth gain for Democrats in California, giving them a 43 to 8 margin in the state's 53-person House delegation. The 39th and 45th districts remain uncalled.  These are both GOP-held seats in the Los Angeles area.

The Associated Press projects Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to win the closely-contested Arizona Senate race.

U.S. Senate and Governor

As the vote count continues, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has taken a small lead over Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race. Several hundred thousand ballots sent by mail are dropped off on Election Day, and these take time to be counted. Overall, approximately 400,000 ballots remain to be tallied.

Arizona U.S. Senate

In a surprising turn of events, Democrat Xochitl Torres Small has won in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district. The Republican nominee, Yvette Herrell had led on Election Night, with numerous media outlets declaring her the winner. However, absentee ballots counted Wednesday were heavily weighted toward Torres Small, putting her over the top.

Democrats have now won 224 seats, Republicans 197, with 14 remaining uncalled. That's a net gain of 29 for Democrats. All 14 of the undecided races are currently held by the GOP. (Vote Counts for Uncalled Races >>).

U.S. House

Democrats will have control of this branch of Congress beginning in January. As of this writing, they have won 220 seats, more than the 218 needed for a majority. Republicans have won 197. 18 districts remain uncalled.  All but one of the remaining seats is currently held by the GOP.  If you'd like to game out the remaining seats, here's an interactive House map based on actual results.

3 Senate seats, 3 Governor, 62 House

Expect the first race calls of the night shortly after the top of the hour.

We've updated the Poll Closing Times schedule for this week's midterm elections. The first polls close at 6:00PM Eastern in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, with the final ones at 1:00AM Wednesday morning in portions of Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

The page includes the number of Senate, Governor and House races that are affected by each closing time. This is based on the latest poll close time for the state or district. In most cases, a race won't be called before this time.  

Note that there's a lot of local variation in closing times. Your polling place may close earlier. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.

There hasn't been all that much movement in the Senate races since we first published this chart last Sunday.  Small changes in the polling averages (choose a state) and FiveThirtyEight Classic Model probabilities; no changes at all in the consensus forecaster rating. 

A few notes:

Just a little over a week before the midterms, here's an overview of where each of this year's 35 Senate elections stands. For each race, we display the polling average (choose a state), a consensus forecaster rating and the FiveThirtyEight probability from their Classic model.  All information is as of late morning on Sunday, October 28th.

A few notes: