We've had some requests for a map of states have certified their 2020 presidential election results. That appears below; the image will update as more states certify. We're using this resource from The New York Times to help populate the map.
States that have certified their results are shown as dark red/blue. Others are shown lighter red/blue based on the projected winner.
Democrats will have a noticeably smaller majority when the 117th Congress begins in January. Prior to the election, the party held a 233-2011 1This includes five vacancies allocated to the party that last held the seat. edge over Republicans, with one seat (MI-3) held by Libertarian Justin Amash, who left the GOP in 2019. Republicans regained that seat and have flipped ten others thus far. Democrats have flipped three seats, two of which were virtually certain due to court-mandated redistricting in North Carolina.
Of these ten Republican gains, nine were seats the party had lost just two years ago. Freshman Democrats Gil Cisneros (CA-39), Harley Rouda (CA-48), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), Donna Shalala (FL-27), Abby Finkenauer (IA-1), Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2), Max Rose (NY-11), Kendra Horn (OK-5) and Joe Cunningham (SC-1) all went down to defeat. In addition, Collin Peterson failed to win a 16th term in the strongly pro-Trump MN-7. The one Democratic gain not associated with redistricting was in suburban Atlanta GA-7, where Carolyn Bourdeaux prevailed. Bourdeaux lost to incumbent Republican Rob Woodall in 2018; it was the closest House race in the country that year. Woodall did not run this year.
Here's a map of where things stand, with the 10 uncalled races shown as toss-up. Click or tap for an interactive version. For those looking ahead, keep in mind that the map will change for 2022, as redistricting will occur based on the upcoming Census results.
With one exception, we now know which party will be in the majority in each state's 2021 U.S. House delegation. Aside from Iowa's 2nd district, none of the 14 races that remain uncalled will change this calculation.
Currently, Republicans hold a 26-23 edge, with one tie in Pennsylvania. Democrats are going to lose three narrow majorities, as Michigan and Minnesota move to an evenly split delegation. In Michigan, Republican Peter Meijer won in District 3, reclaiming the seat held by Libertarian Justin Amash who left the party in 2019. In Minnesota, 15 term Democrat Collin Peterson was defeated in the strongly pro-Trump District 7.
Iowa will also move to a tie if Democratic nominee Rita Hart wins in District 2. If Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks wins, the GOP will have a 3-1 edge there. This race is exceptionally close; Miller-Meeks leads by 47 votes out of nearly 400,000 counted thus far.
These are the states/races where a winner has not yet been projected by our results partner Decision Desk HQ as of the morning of November 10. Vote counts and projections will update on this page.
Some outlets have projected Arizona for Joe Biden; Decision Desk has not as of yet. Donald Trump is likely to win Alaska and is slightly ahead in North Carolina. Joe Biden is slightly ahead in Georgia. If it works out this way, Joe Biden will end up with 306 electoral votes to 232 for Donald Trump. Aside from the reversal in parties, that is the exact same count, based on states won, as 2016.
Depending on where you look, Joe Biden is projected to have won 253 or 264 or 273 electoral votes. Why the discrepancy? There are several independent organizations making race calls. Each has a 'decision desk', where experts (statisticians, political scientists) analyze incoming election results, and mathematically model what's yet to be counted. When they are highly certain that the final numbers for a race will favor one candidate, they will make a call. For example, NBC and ABC use a 99.5% level of certainty before making a projection.
As each of these decision desks works independently, and are sequestered from outside influences, races will be called at different times, although absent the rare situation where a call has to be retracted, they will all eventually get to the same place.
Here's how things stand as of Saturday morning, courtesy of this excellent interactive from The New York Times. In the graphic below, we are showing the states/districts that remain uncalled by one or more outlets.
Since our earlier article, Wisconsin was called for Joe Biden, while Maine's 2nd district was won again by Donald Trump. Wisconsin becomes the first state to flip from 2016, although Biden did also capture Nebraska's 2nd district.
This leaves seven states where a winner has not been projected. Based on the current map, there are 18 paths for Biden to 270, 11 for Trump and 2 that would result in a 269-269 tie.
Some outlets have called Arizona for Biden; our results provider Decision Desk HQ has not as of yet.
In races called by our results provider Decision Desk HQ, Joe Biden has 227 electoral votes to 213 for Donald Trump as of early Wednesday morning. Aside from Biden winning the electoral vote associated with Nebraska's 2nd district, the map is identical to 2016 in the called states.
Based on the current map, there are 37 paths for Biden to 270, 24 for Trump and 11 that would result in a 269-269 tie. Some are obviously more likely than others. FOX has called Arizona for Biden, although that has not been confirmed by others.
Click the image below to use our 'Road to 270' feature to game out those remaining states.
This is the final 2020 election forecast from Sabato's Crystal Ball. As is their custom, races with a toss-up rating are projected as leaning toward a party. The only exceptions this year are for the two Georgia U.S. Senate races - the forecaster sees those both as likely headed for a runoff.
November 2 updates and analysis
Maps of the final Crystal Ball projections follow. Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.
This is the 51st and final installment in The Road to 270 series. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
North Carolina has transformed from being the heart of the tobacco industry in the old south to a bustling hub for business and technology. The Tar Heel state has shed its traditional conservative lean in favor of a decidedly purple or light pink status. A population boom over the last 10 years has brought enormous change to North Carolina. Bitter polarization has come to grip the state's politics during this period, with the Tar Heel state the subject of numerous court battles over voting rights, LGBT rights, same sex marriage, etc.
