2024 Presidential Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Presidential forecast.
2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map
This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters.
Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.
As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 4: Arizona Toss-up to Lean Republican; Kansas Safe to Likely Republican.
To compare this map to a map based just on polling, go here >
2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used.
The map automatically updates three times daily.
States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is up to 8%, Likely up to 12%. Safe is >12%.
The map is interactive. Use it to create and share your 2024 presidential election forecast.
October 1: Ranges (see above) for each category narrowed. Polling should be more predictive as the election draws near. Prior ranges were <5% for Toss-up, <10% Leaning, <15% Likely.
2024 Map Based on Polls (No Toss-ups)
Updated three times daily, this map will track the electoral vote count based on polling, with no toss-ups (unless exactly tied).
The candidate that leads in the polls is shown as the winner of the state. The 2020 party winner is used where there are no polls.
See the regular Harris-Trump Polling Map for more granular ratings based on the polling margin between the two nominees.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Kalshi 2024 Presidential Election Markets
This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election.
The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).
The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.
For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Kalshi website.
538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election
This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Crystal Ball 2024 Electoral College Ratings
The final electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 4: Iowa and NE-01 Safe to Likely Republican.
All Toss-ups removed: Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina to Leans Republican; Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Leans Democrat. Read the analysis >
Cook Political Report 2024 Electoral College Ratings
The final electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Cook Political Report. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 1: NE-02 Lean to Likely Democrat.
These are the final ratings. Read the analysis ($)
November 4: Late shift: Iowa Safe to Likely Republican
Inside Elections 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 4: Iowa Likely to Tilt Republican.
Fox News 2024 Presidential Power Rankings
The final 2024 Presidential Power Rankings from Fox News. The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Note that as a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
October 29: Arizona Toss-up to Leans Republican.
Split Ticket 2024 President Ratings
The final Split Ticket ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
The Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 4: Toss-ups removed. Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina to Tilts Republican; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to Tilts Democrat. Colorado Safe to Likely Democrat. Read the analysis >
JHK Forecasts: 2024 Presidential Election
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2024 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Elections Daily 2024 President Ratings
The final Elections Daily ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
November 4: Toss-ups removed. Arizona to Leans Republican; Georgia, Michgian, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin to Leans Democrat. Iowa and Ohio Safe to Likely Republican. Read the analysis >
cnalysis 2024 Presidential Ratings
The final 2024 presidential forecast from CNalysis. The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Note that as a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
November 4: Arizona Toss-up to Tilt R; Georgia and Michigan Toss-up to Likely D; NE-02 Likely to Safe D; Iowa Likely to Tilt R; Kansas Safe to Likely R; Maine and New Hampshire Likely to Safe D; Nevada and North Carolina Toss-up to Tilt D; Ohio Safe to Likely R; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Toss-up to Lean D; Texas Likely to Lean R.
U.S. News 2024 Presidential Ratings
The final 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News. Jacobson is the chief correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 4: Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio Safe to Likely Republican. Read the analysis >
Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets
This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.
For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Polymarket website.
CNN 2024 Electoral College Map
The current 2024 electoral college outlook from CNN: "The 2024 presidential electoral battleground map has proved to be remarkably stable over the past two months after the race was reshaped with Vice President Kamala Harris’ elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket."
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
October 8: NE-02 Toss-up to Leans Democrat.
Note that CNN does not use a 'Likely' designation in its ratings.
RacetotheWH 2024 Presidential Forecast
The 2024 Presidential Election forecast from RacetotheWH. This data driven model was created by Logan Phillips, who founded the website in 2020.
The Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Very Light (65%+) Light (75%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Final pre-election update was at approximately 6:20AM ET on November 5.
