538 Forecast: 2024 House Election

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 House Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. 

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 House election forecast.

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House Elections 2024

Current 212 220 3 *
Consensus Forecast 210 207 18
Interactive Map Above

* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK- AL Mary Peltola
2022 2nd
9.9% y 10.1%
Eric Hafner
Mary Peltola*
Nick Begich
John Howe
AL- 2 OPEN
N/A 12.4%
Due to redistricting, Barry Moore ran in AL-01 GOP primary.
Shomari Figures
Caroleene Dobson
AZ- 1 David Schweikert
2011 7th
0.9% 1.5%
Amish Shah
David Schweikert*
AZ- 6 Juan Ciscomani
2023 1st
1.5% 0.1%
Kirsten Engel
Juan Ciscomani*
CA- 13 John Duarte
2023 1st
0.4% 10.9%
Adam Gray
John Duarte*
CA- 22 David Valadao
2021 2nd
3.0% 12.9%
Rudy Salas
David Valadao*
CA- 27 Mike Garcia
2020 3rd
6.4% 12.4%
George Whitesides
Mike Garcia*
CA- 41 Ken Calvert
1993 16th
4.6% 1.1%
Will Rollins
Ken Calvert*
CA- 45 Michelle Steel
2021 2nd
4.8% 6.2%
Derek Tran
Michelle Steel*
CA- 47 Katie Porter
2019 3rd
3.4% 11.1%
Retiring to run for U.S. Senate
Dave Min
Scott Baugh
CO- 3 Lauren Boebert
2021 2nd
0.2% 8.3%
Running in CO-04
Adam Frisch
Jeff Hurd
CO- 8 Yadira Caraveo
2023 1st
0.7% 4.6%
Yadira Caraveo*
Gabe Evans
CT- 5 Jahana Hayes
2019 3rd
0.8% 10.7%
Jahana Hayes*
George Logan
FL- 13 Anna Luna
2023 1st
8.1% 6.8%
Whitney Fox
Anna Paulina Luna*
IA- 1 Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2021 2nd
6.8% 2.9%
Christina Bohannan
Mariannette Miller-Meeks*
IA- 3 Zach Nunn
2023 1st
0.7% 0.3%
Lanon Baccam
Zach Nunn*
LA- 6 Garret Graves
2015 5th
N/A 19.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Cleo Fields
Elbert Guillory
ME- 2 Jared Golden
2019 3rd
6.1% y 6.1%
Jared Golden*
Austin Theriault
MI- 7 Elissa Slotkin
2019 3rd
5.4% 0.5%
Retiring to run for U.S. Senate
Curtis Hertel
Tom Barrett
MI- 8 Dan Kildee
2013 6th
10.3% 2.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Kristen McDonald Rivet
Paul Junge
MI- 10 John James
2023 1st
0.5% 1.0%
Carl Marlinga
John James*
MT- 1 Ryan Zinke
2023 1st
3.2% 6.9%
Monica Tranel
Ryan Zinke*
NC- 1 Don Davis
2023 1st
N/A 1.7%
Don Davis*
Laurie Buckhout
NC- 6 Kathy Manning
2021 2nd
N/A 16.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Addison McDowell
NC- 13 Wiley Nickel
2023 1st
N/A 17.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Frank Pierce
Brad Knott
NC- 14 Jeff Jackson
2023 1st
N/A 16.1%
Retiring to run for NC Attorney General
Pam Genant
Tim Moore
NE- 2 Don Bacon
2017 4th
2.7% 6.3%
Tony Vargas
Don Bacon*
NJ- 7 Tom Kean
2023 1st
2.8% 3.9%
Sue Altman
Thomas Kean Jr.*
NM- 2 Gabriel Vasquez
2023 1st
0.7% 5.9%
Gabe Vasquez*
Yvette Herrell
NY- 4 Anthony D'Esposito
2023 1st
N/A 14.5%
Laura Gillen
Anthony D'Esposito*
NY- 17 Michael Lawler
2023 1st
N/A 10.1%
Mondaire Jones
Mike Lawler*
NY- 19 Marc Molinaro
2023 1st
N/A 4.5%
Josh Riley
Marc Molinaro*
NY- 22 Brandon Williams
2023 1st
N/A 11.4%
John Mannion
Brandon Williams*
OH- 9 Marcy Kaptur
1983 21st
13.3% 2.9%
Marcy Kaptur*
Derek Merrin
OH- 13 Emilia Sykes
2023 1st
5.4% 2.8%
Emilia Sykes*
Kevin Coughlin
OR- 5 Lori Chavez-DeRemer
2023 1st
2.1% 8.9%
Janelle Bynum
Lori Chavez-DeRemer*
PA- 7 Susan Wild
2018 4th
2.0% 0.6%
Susan Wild*
Ryan Mackenzie
PA- 8 Matt Cartwright
2013 6th
2.4% 2.9%
Matt Cartwright*
Robert Bresnahan
PA- 10 Scott Perry
2013 6th
7.7% 4.1%
Janelle Stelson
Scott Perry*
PA- 17 Chris Deluzio
2023 1st
6.8% 5.8%
Chris Deluzio*
Rob Mercuri
TX- 34 Vicente Gonzalez
2017 4th
8.5% 15.5%
Vicente Gonzalez*
Mayra Flores
VA- 2 Jen Kiggans
2023 1st
3.4% 1.9%
Missy Smasal
Jen Kiggans*
VA- 7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 3rd
4.7% 6.8%
Retiring to run for Governor of Virginia in 2025
Eugene Vindman
Derrick Anderson
WA- 3 Marie Perez
2023 1st
0.8% 4.2%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez*
Joe Kent
WI- 3 Derrick Van Orden
2023 1st
3.7% 4.7%
Rebecca Cooke
Derrick Van Orden*

(a) Source: 270toWin research.
Aside from these exceptions, the margin is the difference between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the 2022 general election.
Exception types: * Uncontested | + No major party opposition | ^ Both nominees from same party | x All-party primary | y Ranked choice tabulation

(b) Source: Daily Kos. The margin is the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, based on congressional district boundaries in use for the 2024 election. Where there has been redistricting, the 2022 boundaries are used in the Current House tab.